Election 2024
Election Preview
Analysts are watching both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump for potential regulatory picks, as well as how strongly Trump advocates for policies like tariffs and deportations that could impact the economy, inflation and bankers' prospects.
Markets welcomed the news of a second Trump presidency.
"If you had the Trump trade on for the last six weeks, it's been outstanding," said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment. "The question is these winning runs don't last forever and is this a good time to take profits."
While the message from investors is broadly positive, there is also a stern warning in the market gyrations.
The surge in Treasury yields underscores concerns that Trump's policies will swell an already bloated budget deficit and reignite an inflation spiral that the Federal Reserve was only just finally quelling in the wake of the pandemic.
Political contribution data shows that individual bankers have donated more to the Biden-Harris ticket than Trump in 2024, but overall have contributed more to Republicans than Democrats this cycle.
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The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic shook the banking system and sparked renewed debate among regulators and lawmakers about deposit insurance, bank capital and liquidity rules and resolvability. One year later, some of those policy debates have fallen by the wayside while others have been amplified.
A huge amount of money has flowed into the election from cryptocurrency interests, setting up a different financial policy scene, including for bankers, next year.
Reading the tea leaves this election for bank policy is more difficult than years past, experts say, but there are still hints about where former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris stand.
Lower inflation doesn't equate to lower prices, and costs of living may still be higher than pre-pandemic, especially rents. But the varying cooldown could help.
Vice President Kamala Harris sought to outline proposals on housing and a child tax credit, while former President Donald Trump highlighted an aggressive tariff plan.
Emerging clean technologies championed by the Biden administration — ones that commercial banks may be too risk-averse to back at the scale needed — stand to lose a critical funding source if Trump is elected.
It's the latest proposal for a type of national infrastructure financing structure in lieu of the municipal bond market.
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Graham Steele, formerly the assistant secretary for financial institutions at the Treasury Department, laid out a detailed bank regulatory reform agenda for future progressive policymakers to consider that includes rolling bank Trump administration-era tailoring rules and accounting for the increased digitization of the banking system.
August 1
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Election speculation about policy change at Fannie Mae has boosted its stock slightly this year. It's also profitable, but there's much more to consider.
July 30
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Sen. Cynthia Lummis announced a forthcoming bill that would require the government to hold 5% of the global bitcoin supply. Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have also called for strategic holdings of the cryptocurrency.
July 29
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As a senator, the likely Democratic nominee for President championed an agency that did early work on payment technology, setting the stage for a central bank digital currency.
July 26
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Despite being a top concern for a wide swath of voters, housing affordability has largely been absent from presidential politics.
July 26
