Economic indicators

While companies trust banks and typically maintain their core relationship with small businesses, the industry's dominant position is hardly set in stone, according to a survey by American Banker.

Lower inflation doesn't equate to lower prices, and costs of living may still be higher than pre-pandemic, especially rents. But the varying cooldown could help.

Other estimates suggest nonbank mortgage employment grew in July as the industry cautiously added staff to handle incremental growth in demand for loans.

Late payments, which have been on a steady rise since 2021, are now climbing at a slower rate or even declining at some major card issuers. Risks remain, but there's 'reason to be cautiously optimistic," one analyst said.

The Cleveland-based bank is projecting steady growth in net interest income even as credit losses remain manageable. But Chairman and CEO Chris Gorman also said that he thinks a recession is likely.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he'd like to see the central bank's holdings of mortgage-backed securities go to zero. 

The American Bankers Association's latest credit conditions indices show that economists at major banks are feeling more confident about commercial lending in 2024 — but they stop far short of a ringing endorsement.

Executives at America's largest banks are making rosier predictions about the financial health of U.S. households than they were a year ago, when their forecasts proved to be overly pessimistic.

A key gauge of activity that tracks startups most likely to create jobs declined in October, potentially signaling the start of a slowdown after the rapid increase in interest rates. It presents a red flag for community banks and credit unions that are major lenders to small businesses.

Broader economic factors, including growing household debt, are also likely to keep the housing market stagnant, Freddie Mac said.