Economic indicators

Former Comptroller of the Currency Eugene Ludwig has written a book called The Mismeasurement of America that lays out the shortcomings of the standard economic data that U.S. government and businesses use to make decisions, and how this data obscures the truth about how low-income Americans are actually faring.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 22,000 jobs in August, raising the unemployment rate to 4.3% and providing additional cover for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September.

The department is aiming to boost transparency and win Trump's trust after poor economic numbers last month led to a bureaucrat's firing.

The removal of the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to change government data practices in the near term, experts say, but the perception of interference will have a big effect on the credibility of government economic metrics going forward.

A pair of surveys released in June indicates that small-business owners have growing confidence, while startup activity and SBA lending are demonstrating continued strength.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its unemployment report for June, showing that the economy added 147,000 jobs. The report supports the Federal Reserve's patience to cut interest rates.

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation moved further from its 2% target, underscoring the central bank's reluctance to cut rates.

Consumer spending and exports fell slightly in the latest estimate, leading to a downward revision. Imports, which dragged down overall output during the first three months of the year, also came in smaller.

Growth in consumer spending was revised down, but estimates for imports and business investment were raised.

An industry consultant thinks Edward Jones' latest bid to start a bank is an attempt to add revenue sources as the traditional brokerage business becomes less lucrative.

The personal consumption expenditures index showed headline inflation flat at 2.5%, but the details of the report explain the Federal Reserve's reluctance to adjust interest rates.

Officials in the Trump administration have floated the idea of changing how the government measures economic growth. Economists say the shift would create new expenses for banks.

While companies trust banks and typically maintain their core relationship with small businesses, the industry's dominant position is hardly set in stone, according to a survey by American Banker.

Lower inflation doesn't equate to lower prices, and costs of living may still be higher than pre-pandemic, especially rents. But the varying cooldown could help.

Other estimates suggest nonbank mortgage employment grew in July as the industry cautiously added staff to handle incremental growth in demand for loans.

Late payments, which have been on a steady rise since 2021, are now climbing at a slower rate or even declining at some major card issuers. Risks remain, but there's 'reason to be cautiously optimistic," one analyst said.

The Cleveland-based bank is projecting steady growth in net interest income even as credit losses remain manageable. But Chairman and CEO Chris Gorman also said that he thinks a recession is likely.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he'd like to see the central bank's holdings of mortgage-backed securities go to zero. 

The American Bankers Association's latest credit conditions indices show that economists at major banks are feeling more confident about commercial lending in 2024 — but they stop far short of a ringing endorsement.

Executives at America's largest banks are making rosier predictions about the financial health of U.S. households than they were a year ago, when their forecasts proved to be overly pessimistic.