BankThink

Fearless forecasts for consumer finance and bank technology in the new year.

Recently, after giving a speech to a banker group that skewed rather young, the bank's head recruiter offered me a ride to the airport. Along the way, she told me that she had paid special attention during my presentation to the reactions of their newer hires in the audience.

JPMorgan Chase’s CEO will have the misfortune of catching a significant amount of fallout from the MF Global mess.

Receiving Wide Coverage ...Bank Stock Bulls: A story in the Journal says bank stocks could fare well in 2012 - regional and community banks' stocks, that is, not the too-big-to-fail crowd. Financials in general have been trading for less than book value, implying some upside. But the new regulatory capital demands on the largest institutions will crimp their returns and their ability to reward investors with dividends or share repurchases. Also, the big banks have been taking in more deposits than they could profitably redeploy through lending, making those more-ubiquitous-than-Starbucks branches they assembled over the last decade or so seem superfluous and costly. An analyst is paraphrased as saying something that we've kind of known for at least a year now but are pleased to see it articulated: "The idea that big banks enjoy economies of scale is largely a myth." Banks with less than $10 billion in assets are now, therefore, "in a position to outgrow and outperform the giants." Yet the FT quotes other analysts making a bullish case for the big banks' shares. Aside from the aforementioned discounts to book values, things are looking up for the U.S. economy (relatively speaking) and lending has picked up a bit recently. One forecaster expects U.S. banks to "cherry pick assets from de-leveraging European banks at a discount." The story also suggests banks' borrowing costs in the fixed-income market could improve in 2012, having widened considerably. Wall Street Journal, Financial Times

A common mistake that financial institutions make is simply spamming social network pages with automated messages and promotions. The key... is to engage and be genuine.

As part of your 2012 Credit Union Checklist, just a helpful reminder to make sure you've got December 21st circled. That's the day the world will be ending in a fiery, cataclysmic apocalypse, according to the Mayan Long Count Calendar. So if you're, say, planning a data processing conversion, you might want to put it off until Dec. 22, just in case.

Credit unions garnered a priceless store of goodwill and good press because of Bank Transfer Day. We must not squander it. It is thestrict adherence to our prudent business model and commitment to our members' financial well-being which led to this grassroots outpouring of support.

As non-profit 501 (c) 3's around the country make a mad dash for end of the year donations, it gives me some pause for thought about the whole nature of "giving."

Has the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, with over 500 employees and growing like cancer, actually protected any consumers yet? Well, next best thing. It garners headlines nearly daily in lobbying to gain full powers by getting Cordray confirmed. Dodd-Frank says the CFPB must have a confirmed director to fire from all barrels.

Fearless forecasts for bank risk management in the new year.