AI and cartels push global financial crime to $4.4 trillion

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  • Key insight: Global illicit financial activity surged 19.2% since 2023 to an estimated $4.4 trillion in 2025, according to a Nasdaq Verafin report.
  • Supporting data: In 2024, 63% of surveyed organizations experienced a business email compromise attack, making it the most common source of payments fraud.
  • Forward look: To combat escalating threats, 75% of surveyed anti-financial crime professionals plan to increase their use of artificial intelligence for detection.

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Criminal networks using artificial intelligence and professional money laundering syndicates pushed global illicit financial activity to an estimated $4.4 trillion in 2025, placing U.S. banks on the front lines of an escalating war against fraud.

The staggering figure represents a 19.2% increase since 2023, according to a Wednesday report from Nasdaq Verafin, a financial crime management technology firm. In the U.S., organized crime, fraud, corruption and other criminal activities generated $1.6 trillion in proceeds, laundered through the country's financial system.

This global surge coincides with record-breaking domestic losses. U.S. victims lost a record $16.6 billion to internet crimes last year, according to a 2024 report from the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3).

Furthermore, 79% of corporate organizations experienced attempted or actual payments fraud in 2024, according to an April 2025 survey from the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP), a professional society for treasury and corporate finance workers.

For U.S. bankers, this unprecedented wave of illicit finance translates directly into severe operational risks and massive financial liabilities. U.S. banks absorbed $179 billion in direct fraud losses globally in 2025, according to the Nasdaq Verafin report.

AI accelerates cyber-enabled fraud

The rise in digital connectivity has vastly expanded the ways in which bad actors — scammers, fraudsters, money launderers, illegal drug dealers — can exploit financial institutions and their customers.

"Scammers are increasingly using the Internet to steal Americans' hard-earned savings," B. Chad Yarbrough, operations director for criminal and cyber at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, wrote in the introduction of the FBI's 2024 IC3 report, an annual report on internet crime.

This technological arms race forces bank compliance teams to confront an ever-evolving threat. Among surveyed anti-financial crime professionals, 90% reported an increase in AI-driven attacks against their institutions over the past two years, according to the Nasdaq Verafin report.

One way in which these AI-driven attacks manifest is as business email compromises, which threat actors can refine and deploy at scale with the use of large language models.

Bad actors increasingly leverage generative artificial intelligence to scale their attacks and perfect their scam playbooks. Specifically, criminals use AI to craft highly targeted, personalized messages and impersonate executives, making it difficult for employees to differentiate a fraudulent email from an authentic one.

Because AI makes these deceptive tactics so much more effective, it has fueled a surge in cyber-enabled schemes such as business email compromise. In 2024, 63% of surveyed organizations experienced a business email compromise attack, making it the most common source of payments fraud, according to the April survey from AFP.

The sheer volume of these digital attacks elevates financial crimes to the most prevalent criminal market globally. The consequences of this surge extend far beyond immediate monetary losses.

"Organized crime is undermining democracy, the sovereignty of states, and even international peace and security," according to Mark Shaw, executive director of the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, in the initiative's 2025 report on global organized crime.

Professional money launderers bypass traditional defenses

As banks strengthen their anti-money-laundering controls, transnational criminal organizations increasingly outsource their illicit finance operations to professional money laundering networks.

Mexican drug cartels including the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel now heavily rely on Chinese money laundering networks to process their illicit proceeds in the United States, according to an August 2025 advisory from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

These professional networks capitalize on dual demand: The cartels need to clean illicit U.S. dollars, and Chinese citizens want to bypass their home country's strict currency control laws.

To satisfy both parties, the launderers conduct "mirror transactions," according to FinCEN. When a U.S.-based money launderer receives dollars from a cartel, a Mexico-based counterpart almost instantly transfers an equivalent amount of pesos to the cartel's local accounts.

This method allows criminal organizations to avoid the risks of smuggling physical cash across borders, and it bypasses Mexican regulations that restrict U.S. dollar deposits.

The speed and sophistication of these networks create immense challenges for bank compliance teams, as the illicit actors function with high efficiency and adaptability.

"We are currently in the midst of a full-blown financial crime crisis, powered by criminal networks that are leveraging AI to super-charge scam playbooks and operating with the scale and coordination of multinational corporations," according to Stephanie Champion, executive vice president and head of financial crime management technology at Nasdaq Verafin.

Banks turn to AI and collaborative networks

To fight back, financial institutions plan to invest heavily in new technologies, the Nasdaq Verafin report found.

Among surveyed anti-financial crime professionals, 75% said they plan to increase their use of artificial intelligence to detect illicit activity, according to the report. Among top-tier banks, leaders plan to boost their spending on AI technologies by 20% over the next year.

Institutions also rely on extensive reporting to help law enforcement track these criminal networks. U.S. financial institutions filed approximately 4.7 million Suspicious Activity Reports in fiscal year 2024, according to a recent review from FinCEN.

However, banking advocates argue that institutions cannot solve the problem in isolation. Industry professionals urge regulators to provide clearer guidance on using AI and to encourage bank-to-bank information sharing, which helps institutions connect fragmented data into a complete picture of criminal networks.

"We need more guidance and clear guidance to help drive us into this new world of AI," according to a chief compliance officer at a North American regional bank, cited but not named in the Nasdaq Verafin report. "I think the criminals are winning the arms race because of the lack of regulatory action."

Breaking down silos between institutions and across borders remains a critical hurdle, but experts argue that collaborative infrastructure is essential.

Successful intervention hinges on strong leadership and the courage of organizations to share intelligence, according to David Pegley, managing director of the Australian Financial Crimes Exchange, a not-for-profit intelligence-sharing organization.

"This is a global problem," Pegley said in the Nasdaq Verafin report. "No jurisdiction should have to start from scratch."

Ultimately, stopping the flow of illicit funds requires banks to shift their focus from reactive compliance to proactive, real-time intervention.

"If you detect something after it's happened, the criminality is already occurring," Chris Sheehan, an executive lead for investigations at National Australia Bank, said in the report. "If you had prevented the crime from occurring in the first place, you could have avoided all of that."


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Financial crimes Cyber security Artificial intelligence Fraud Money laundering Cyber attacks Technology
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