Shares of Alliance Data Systems Corp. may be overvalued and could fall if the U.S. economic recovery stalls and the government tightens credit card regulations, according to the business newsweekly Barron's.

Alliance Data, a Dallas provider of private-label card programs to merchants, could be worth about $25 a share, much lower than Friday's closing price of $58.20, according to the paper's own analysis. It looks "vulnerable" as concern rises about a double-dip recession, Barron's noted.

William Ryan, an analyst at Portales Partners in New York, has written in client notes that Alliance Data's credit card business is deteriorating. Further credit card losses and less money collected in late fees should dampen earnings next year, he wrote.

The Dallas card company declined to comment for the article; its shares have fallen 9.9% this year.

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