Predictions that homeownership is entering a
Decennial data published late last month suggests an even more severe picture.
According to the 2010 census, for which questionnaires were first mailed in March that year, the homeownership rate fell 1.1 percentage points from the decade before, to 65.1%.
Over roughly the same time frame — from the middle of 2000 through the middle of 2010 — quarterly data showed a drop of just 0.3 of a percentage point, to 66.9%. (The accompanying chart reflects seasonally adjusted data, which shows a decline of 0.4 of a percentage point, also to 66.9%.)
The quarterly data, based on surveys of sample addresses, indicated that homeownership peaked in the second quarter of 2004 at 69.2%, and that it has continued to fall since the middle of last year, dropping to 66.4% in the first quarter, a level last seen in 1998.
In addition to showing a sharper decline over the most recent decade covered, however, the full census suggests that homeownership may not have risen by as much as indicated in the quarterly data.
From 1990 to 2000, the homeownership rate determined by the census increased 2 percentage points, to 66.2%, compared with a 3.5-percentage-point increase for the quarterly data from mid-1990 to mid-2000, to 67.2%.
In an item
But in miscasting homeownership rates, the quarterly data also makes the housing market look in worse shape than it probably is, Lawler wrote. Overlooked renters mean higher rental vacancy rates and thus higher inventories of "excess" housing. While such stocks are large compared with "normal" levels inferred from the 1990 and 2000 censuses, Lawler wrote, "estimates in the 3.5 million range seem just plain silly."
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