This article, the second of two parts, is adapted from a talk by Mr. O'Donnell delivered last month at the senior executives conference of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

I estimate that originations in 1994 fell by more than 40% to nearly $700 billion. This year I estimate we will be very lucky to reach $600 billion. And in the future, anything above $600 billion will likely be considered a very good year.

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