LONDON -- Up to 250,000 jobs-some 10% of the work force-could be lost in European banking over the next five to seven years, according to a survey by Andersen Worldwide Organization.
Following an analysis of 400 replies from banks and capital markets organizations in 21 European countries polled during 1992 and 1993, Andersen also predicts that the banks of the future will include retailers, manufacturers, and finance houses.
And it expects more choice for customers, fewer Main Street branches and lower costs in an increasingly integrated market.
Banks "will have to reassess the number of people they need. There could be a quarter of a million job losses by the year 2000 as banks look to fee-based products like insurance policies and trading profits," said Stephen Kingsley, the Andersen partner in charge of the survey.
Trend Toward Consolidation
He said a large question mark hangs over branch networks and said there is a trend towards consolidation in most countries.
He noted evidence in the United Kingdom of nonbanking organizations taking over traditional banking areas such as the issue of credit cards. And he predicted telephone banking and the use of automated teller machines would cut the number of branches needed.
The results of the Andersen survey were reviewed by a panel of 50 senior bankers and the final analysis was published this week.
One conclusion is that the level of savings will climb as the population grows older. And on the investment side, banks are worried about the quality of their risk management information.
'A Worry About Credit'
There are "clear signs of risk-aversion among the banks. There's a worry about credit," said Mr. Kingsley. And he notes there will be increasing competition from companies as diverse as industrial firms and retailers.
The survey suggests too that banks have made little provision for the possibility of European economic and monetary union, which has been targeted for 1997. "If EMU ever happened, they would lose a lot of money. They're not geared up for it. They're betting on it never happening," said Mr. Kingsley. And he sees the strongest firms being those that are expert traders.