Experian Inc. and the Gallup Organization have started a monthly survey to measure consumers' likelihood of borrowing money.
The telephone surveys will produce a Personal Credit Index, akin to the Consumer Confidence Index, reflecting consumers' perceptions of their credit status using four criteria: level of debt, monthly payment burden, credit rating, and debt-extension capability.
Ed Ojdana, the president of Experian Consumer Direct, said the first study by the credit bureau and the polling company was conducted between Jan. 17 and Feb. 7. It found that consumers were more optimistic about their future credit status than about their current credit situation.
A third of the 2,007 surveyed said they had reduced the amount they owed over the past six months, and 28% said they had added to their debt burden. Fifty-two percent said they expected to reduce their debt in the next six months; 15% said they expected it to increase.
According to the baseline survey, one in five consumers had already cut back on their spending in response to rising interest rates. Only 6% said they expected the next six months to be a good time to borrow money.
"One thing that really surprised me is the effect of interest rates," Mr. Ojdana said.
Dennis Jacobe, the chief economist for Gallup, of Washington said, "If the primary rate continues to go up, I think most businesses have underestimated the effect it's going to have" on consumers.
The index, which was announced Tuesday, is available at no cost at PersonalCreditIndex.com, a site run by Experian, of Costa Mesa, Calif.
Mr. Jacobe said the information provides another window into the economy and consumer spending. The survey presents two ratings - the Present Situation Index and the Future Situation Index - that range from a low of minus 400 to a high of 400.
The first survey found that three in four consumers have a credit card, and that 69% of those have a fixed interest rate on the card. Roughly half of the survey audience reported having a home mortgage, and 87% said it was a fixed-rate mortgage.
Consumers with home equity loans showed a higher propensity for variable interest rates. Thirty percent of those with equity loans and 45% with equity lines of credit said they had variable rates. Among these consumers, more than one-third said their interest rates had increased in the past six months.
"Companies need to be aware that the rise in interest rates really affects the consumers," Mr. Jacobe said.
Men tended to be more positive than women about their credit situation, older consumers were more positive than younger buyers, and higher-income consumers were more positive than those in the lower income bracket.
The results varied dramatically along income lines, Experian said. Consumers with income under $40,000 a year hovered at a PCI of 44; those with income of $40,000 to $75,000 had a PCI of 107; and those with income of $75,000 or more fell in the 171 PCI range.
"If you cater to lower- or middle-income consumers, that doesn't bode very well for future retail activity," Mr. Jacobe said.
Seventy percent of those surveyed said they were not aware that credit scores could affect job applications; 56% said they were unaware they influence car insurance rates; and 43% did not know credit affects the awarding of private student loans.
Forty-eight percent said they had never checked their credit report, and less than a third had checked their report in the past year.
"This is a good benchmark for us to realize who is checking their credit," Mr. Ojdana said.
