Like many bankers around the country, Ray Davis has been spending much of his time grappling with the balance-sheet effects of a devastating financial crisis, while also trying to peek around the corner to what banking might look like, post-crisis.

The picture is murky, at best. Davis, the chief executive of Umpqua Holdings Corp. in Portland, Ore., foresees higher capital requirements, tougher regulatory enforcement and a surge in consolidation activity. He also thinks banking will be more competitive, less profitable — and less flashy. "We might see a return back to the basics: collect deposits and make good loans; to hell with the rest of it." But Davis also is quick to concede that his best guesses are just that: guesses.

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