Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Inc., takes what he describes as an "alarmist" view of the year-2000 problem. He believes there is a 60% chance of global recession caused by the millennial glitch.

In a talk earlier this month to a year-2000 roundtable sponsored by the Bank for International Settlements, he explained his viewpoint. Below are excerpts from that talk.

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