Midterm Senate races bankers need to watch

• What's at stake: Control of the Senate had been a long shot for Democrats in 2026, but President Trump's low approval rating on the economy, stubborn inflation and an unpopular war with Iran are putting the upper chamber in play.
• Key insight: Several challengers in the 2026 cycle have a background in finance or will likely be placed on the Senate Banking Committee.
• Forward look: Regardless of who takes the Senate, lawmakers may be compelled to side either with the banking industry or the cryptocurrency industry if a market structure bill does not get passed in the 119th Congress.

WASHINGTON — The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be more competitive than expected, and the outcome will determine just how pliant the legislature will be during the final two years of the Trump era. 

Republicans currently hold a razor-thin margin in the House of Representatives and are widely expected to fall out of the majority despite efforts in several states to revise electoral maps to give the GOP more seats. 

But the real question is whether Democrats can win a majority in the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and where many of the Republican incumbents are running in states that Trump won in 2024. 

Electoral outcomes always matter to banks, but the outcome of the 2024 midterms comes as Congress is considering legislation governing the cryptocurrency market and a growing public discontent with the economy and affordability could reshape how the government operates with private businesses across the country. 

Here are some of the most important Senate races to watch in the 2026 midterm elections that could have implications for the banking industry. 

Sherrod Brown

One of the country's most competitive races is the Ohio Senate contest, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who's historically had the support of unions and working class voters across the state, faces off against Jon Husted, who was appointed in 2025 to serve the remainder of Vice President JD Vance's term, which he vacated in 2025. 

Brown served as the chair of the Senate Banking Committee during the 117th and 118th Congresses. He lost his reelection bid in 2024, in part due to the substantial financial support of the crypto industry to his opponent, Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio. Now-Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., even publicly thanked the crypto industry for Brown's defeat. 

Should Brown win in Ohio, he would technically retain his seniority should he return to the Senate Banking Committee, meaning he could edge out the committee's current ranking member, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., if he wants to retake the gavel. But it isn't clear that he will want the post — he famously passed very little legislation during his time atop the committee — or the headache of fighting Warren for control of a committee that is so central to her political brand.

Cook Political Report has rated the Ohio Senate race as a toss-up, shifting from its earlier "lean Republican" rating. 

Andy Barr

Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., an influential member of the House Financial Services Committee for the past few Congresses, recently won his party's primary for Kentucky's open Senate race. Former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., announced last year that he would not run for reelection.

Barr's bills on de novo bank formation and other policies lobbied for by community bankers have actually passed into law, mostly through this year's housing bill, as riders. 

While the seat Barr is running for is safely Republican — it's been held by McConnell since 1984 — Barr is still dealing with competing interests from the crypto and banking industries. Because of Barr's experience legislating in the financial industry, he'll want to be on the Senate Banking Committee, and stands a good chance of being selected for it. 

He'll have to deal with more pressure from the crypto industry, however. The ongoing deliberations about the CLARITY Act have increasingly pitted banking interests against those of the crypto industry, so he and fellow Republicans may be put in the position of having to choose sides in the coming years. 

Roy Cooper 

Another one of the country's most competitive races is in North Carolina, the consistently purple state that looks poised to put its former governor in the upper chamber. 

Roy Cooper, North Carolina's former governor and Democratic Senate candidate, has consistently led the Republican nominee, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. Cooper would replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican who's been one of the Senate Banking Committee's most sympathetic lawmakers toward the banking industry for years. 

Home to the financial center Charlotte, North Carolina is typically represented on the Senate Banking Committee. It would be either Cooper, Whatley or North Carolina's other Republican Senator, Ted Budd, replacing Tillis on the committee. 

Cooper has been popular in North Carolina for years, holding on to the governor's seat throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Before he was governor, he introduced and helped pass North Carolina's 1999 predatory lending law, and then helped enforce it as the state's attorney general. 

It was the first state law in the United States that specifically targeted predatory mortgage lending, and served as a model for other local governments. He testified in the Senate Banking Committee in 2004 as North Carolina's attorney general about federal preemption of these kinds of laws. 

As governor, Cooper had taken a moderate approach to business relationships in the state, including with the financial industry, appointing fairly traditional state banking commissioners. 

Pete Ricketts 

Nebraska is precisely the kind of state that shouldn't be in play in 2026 but that nonetheless somehow still is. Independent candidate Dan Osborn, who ran against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024 and is running again against Sen. Pete Ricketts in 2026, continues to outperform expectations in the state. While the race is still expected to go to Ricketts — an heir to the TD Ameritrade fortune and former state governor — Osborn stands an outside chance of a rare non-Republican win in the state. 

Ricketts is a recent addition to the Senate and the banking committee, having joined in 2023 after the resignation of former Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb. So far, he's been an outspoken voice on the committee, particularly on crypto issues, although he's still a green lawmaker and hasn't led any major legislative initiatives. He's introduced legislation, alongside Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., to improve bank-fintech partnerships, and has generally tried to work himself more into financial policy lawmaking. 

Osborn is a former labor union leader with a highly populist platform. His ideas aren't strongly concerned with the financial sector, but his messaging does in part center around an "everyman" taking on one of the Senate's wealthiest members with a financial industry fortune. His website has a brief mention of ridding the country of bailouts for "the banks and corporations," but little additional detail.