Occupy Wall Street may be a movement but it has a long way to go before it evolves into a political movement on par with the Tea Party, according to a well-respected political pundit.
Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia and director of the Center for Politics in Charlottesville, Va., told attendees at the annual American Bankers Association conference in San Antonio, that Occupy Wall Street is not in position to alter the presidential race in 2012.
"I have yet to see any indications of Occupy Wall Street moving from the glamorous job of holding demonstrations to the nitty gritty nature of politics," Sabato said during comments made on Monday. "It is still a movement without leadership or direction."
Still, the movement does have influence. Conference organizers implemented a series of security measures to deter what was being called Occupy San Antonio. Local police officers and private security were clearly visible around the hotel and convention center, and attendees were required to carry with them at all times a card that reflected the ABA logo when hit with a black light.
No protesters infiltrated the event, perhaps reflecting the efficacy of security or the group's inability to mobilize in time to disrupt the conference.
Sabato, in contrast, said the Tea Party could play a role in the 2012 presidential election by impeding the Republican Party's ability to unseat Barack Obama. Couching his projections somewhat, Sabato said it seems likely that Mitt Romney will emerge as the GOP candidate and would have fighting chance of unseating Obama if the Tea Party stays out of the race.
Republicans have a much better shot of taking over Congress. Sabato, who touts a success rate above 95% for calling Congressional campaigns, forecast the GOP retaining the House and possibly forcing a tie in the Senate next year. Regardless, he said Republicans are all but guaranteed to take over the Senate in 2014, either empowering a GOP-controlled White House or limiting Obama to a "foreign policy presidency."
