Residential lenders originated $384 billion of new one- to four-family loans in the first quarter, a year-over-year decline of 20%, according to preliminary survey figures published Monday by National Mortgage News.

Almost every funder reporting to National Mortgage News showed a double-digit percentage decline in production.

At the current run rate, originations will total $1.5 trillion this year, compared with $1.9 trillion in 2009.

Some housing analysts, such as David Olson of Access Research in Columbia, Md., say fundings could be as low as $1.2 trillion, maybe lower.

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