Like others’ 2009 IT spending forecasts, Forrester Research has had to scale back initial projections of business and government expenditures in hardware, software, networks and services because of the worsening economic environment. But Forrester analyst Andrew Bartels contends that despite the low growth rate of 1.6 percent—compared to the 6.1 percent initially predicted—there are four signs that an early, second-half 2009 economic recovery might begin to reverse the skid:

—The steep drop in energy prices will bring relief not only to transportation and logistics firms, but also to heavy energy users (data centers, anyone?)
—Falling interest rates, which will reignite appetites for IT purchases in late 2009 as banks and securities firms see their financial performance improve
—Exports will rise to Brazil, Russia, India and China with the declining U.S. dollar and provide the return on investment for IT investments by manufacturers, high-tech firms and production companies
—President-Elect Barack Obama’s expected $700 billion to $800 billion economic stimulus plan will spur technology needs, particularly in government, healthcare and education

Further, Forrester continues to see enough healthy demand for IT consulting and systems integration—a key FinTech category—to keep spending growth there from dipping below two percent next year. The market for SOA migration, “squeezing value” out of legacy systems, M&A help, and improving process efficiencies should rebound to a growth rate of 7.9 percent by 2010, predicts Forrester.

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