What Adyen's tariff troubles portend for payments companies

Jasper Juinen/Bloomberg News

Tariffs and the subsequent global trade war are hurting Adyen's financial outlook, causing the company to seek ways to de-emphasize the U.S. 

"The tariffs are impacting some of our Asia Pacific merchants," Adyen CEO Ingo Uytdehaage said during Adyen's earnings call. For the first half of 2025, Adyen reported net revenue of $1.27 billion, lower than the $1.3 billion forecast by LSEG analysts. First half earnings before interest, taxes and amortization were  $635 million, lower than the $643 million estimated by analysts.

Adyen also said its previously forecast of "slight net revenue growth" is "unlikely" due to increasingly uncertain macroeconomics. Adyen did not return a request for comment. Beyond the impact of tariffs, Adyen reported strong results, such as wallet share gains among existing merchants and improvements in adding new customers. 

But "the downward revision in full year net revenue growth guidance and commentary suggesting a persistent macro headwind in the second half will likely overshadow the positive data points," KeyBanc Capital Markets said in an analyst note on Adyen. "We walk away incrementally cautious on the balance of the year." 

Less focus on the US

Adyen, which is headquartered in Amsterdam, also has operations in the U.S. The company has accumulated a portfolio of payment and financial services products in competition with Stripe, Block, PayPal and other companies that sell payment technology to small businesses globally.

Uytdehaage told analysts that it would attempt to route more transactions from China to non-U.S. consumers to reduce economic pressure from the trade war. "That's how we look at things we can't control," Uytdehaage said on viewing the tariffs as an "opportunity." "We can help those merchants move into new markets." While payment firms are looking at how tariffs and tighter immigration policy impact inflation and payment volume, there's one particular change that is heavily impacting China, and thus could hit Asian payment volume particularly hard.

Read more about tariffs. Tariffs and Banking: Key Insights and Analysis | American Banker

In Adyen's case the tariff impacts partly include the suspension of the de minimus rule. Tariffs for goods under $800 traditionally were waived under the rule. Large firms that sell Chinese goods, such as Temu and Shein, are subject to the de minimus rule's discontinuation given their large sales volumes of lower-cost items to the U.S. via e-commerce. Losing the $800 waiver exposes small purchases to the same uncertain tariffs as larger purchases. Adyen did not disclose its exposure to Shein or Temu, but its revenue includes transaction fees from online retailers, and Adyen attributed its tariff pressure to slower growth from APAC merchants with U.S. e-commerce customers. 

Downstream pressure

While payment companies have mostly projected stronger than expected earnings for 2025, analysts said the recent imposition of new tariffs threaten those outlooks. 

"While we expect fundamentals in the second quarter to hold up, estimates for many payments companies anticipate a stronger second half relative to the first half driven by timing of growth initiatives or favorable comps," KBW said in a research report on the broader global payments industry. "The key question is whether confidence in the achievability of these growth targets remains intact as the impacts from tariffs in the second half come back into focus."

Areas to watch include travel, discretionary online retail given the de minimis tax exemption to China going away and restaurant spending, according to KBW. "But a weaker dollar should be an incremental tailwind for most of the companies in our coverage," KBW said.

The notion that tariffs won't impact the payments industry is wishful thinking or denial, Eric Grover, principal at Intrepid Ventures, told American Banker, noting that tariffs are a tax on imports and are increasing the price of goods for consumers and producers. 

"They will, therefore, very directly reduce commerce and consequently payments," Grover said. "Cross-border e-commerce is likely to be most immediately and acutely impacted, which is why Adyen in particular is feeling the pain. But the rest of the payments industry isn't immune. Payment networks and processors will suffer, some more than others depending on their mix of business."

Adyen has had more exposure outside the U.S., where the impact of tariffs is more likely to be felt, particularly in Asia, Aaron McPherson, principal at AFM Consulting, told American Banker. 

Another important factor is the delay in tariffs, which has muted their impact thus far, McPherson said. Some businesses have absorbed the impact of tariffs, but may soon have to pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers because the businesses can no longer afford the extra expense. Inflation in the U.S. has started to increase along with signs of a weakening labor market. 

Given these factors, Adyen's relatively weak earnings report may be a harbinger of problems to come, according to McPherson. "We'll need to see more corporate reporting to gauge the full effect of the tariffs, but given that the majority of them only went into effect this week, they would not have shown up in last quarter's numbers anyway," he said.