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Average bankcard borrower debt in the United States was $5,776 for the first quarter ended March 31, an increase of 82 basis points from $5,729 in the previous quarter, according to TransUnion.com's quarterly credit card analysis.
The first-quarter debt is 4.1% higher, compared with $5,548 during the first quarter of last year. The Chicago-based credit bureau defines average bankcard borrower debt as the total bankcard debt per bankcard borrower. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The highest state average bankcard debt remains in Alaska at $7,476, followed by Tennessee at $6,869 and Nevada at $6,677. The lowest average bankcard debt was found in Iowa at $4,300, followed by North Dakota at $4,414 and West Virginia at $4,640.
The steepest increases in average bankcard debt over the previous quarter occurred in Alabama (5.6%), Mississippi (5.4%) and Tennessee (4.7 %). The District of Columbia experienced the largest drop in average bankcard debt (-1.5%), followed by the Wyoming (-1.2%) and New Jersey (-1.1%).
The ratio of bankcard borrowers nationwide who were at least 90 days delinquent on one or more of their bankcards increased to 1.32% in the first quarter, up 11 basis points from 1.21% during the previous quarter and 13 basis points higher than the rate of 1.19% in the same quarter a year ago, according to the credit bureau's analysis.
Incidence of bankcard delinquency was highest in Nevada (2.44%), followed closely by Florida (1.9%) and Arizona (1.68%). The lowest bankcard delinquency incidence rates were found in North Dakota (0.73%), South Dakota (0.77%) and Alaska (0.77%). The District of Columbia saw a quarter-over-quarter drop of 11.8% in bankcard delinquency.
"As expected, bankcard delinquencies increased in the first quarter both as a national average and in most areas of the country," said Ezra Becker, director of consulting and strategy in TransUnion's financial services group.
"As the recession entered its sixth quarter, we saw continued increases in average bankcard balances, as consumers struggled to meet repayment obligations in a job market that continues to deteriorate," Becker said. "This increase could be an indication that tax refund checks, typically used to pay down balances in during the first quarter in years past, are now being used to cover daily living expenses."
TransUnion's forecasting models have been quite predictive over the past few quarters, forecasting delinquency within 1.3% of actual rates, according to the credit bureau. The current TransUnion forecast for the national 90-day bankcard delinquency rate is a continued rise throughout 2009, approaching 1.7% by the end of the year.
Depending on the impact of various stimulus programs and the effects of unemployment, the bankcard delinquency rate's upward climb could potentially taper off in early 2010, with a peak in late 2010 or early 2011 as increases in disposable income assist consumers with their repayment obligations.
At the state level, Nevada is anticipated to experience the highest delinquency rate by the end of 2009 (2.95%), while Alaska is expected to show the lowest delinquency rate (0.96%). Of course, the impact the changes to credit card regulations and associated legislation, and the response of card lenders to those changes, will have on consumer behavior and, hence, delinquency rates is still unknown.
