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A year ago we asked BankThink contributors to make bold predictions about 2012. Here's a look back at their forecasts and the actual outcomes.

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PREDICTION: Nonbank Renaissance

"Nonbank mortgage firms are going to grow market share quickly as banks retreat from housing finance under weight of Dodd-Frank and Basel III. Wall Street will raise hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital for non-bank firms, while commercial banks fund warehouses and investors return to private label [residential mortgage-backed securities]." Chris Whalen, Tangent Capital Partners

OUTCOME: Nonbank servicers certainly gained market share - Ocwen, Nationstar and Walter Investment grew rapidly, stoking fears that they were getting too big too quickly to manage. The nonbank servicers are all in the process of raising more capital. Meanwhile, banks have returned to warehouse lending, though a drop in mortgage volume has caused a pullback among some banks. The private-label MBS market remained morbiund, however. Whalen has put his money where his mouth is - he is now a managing director and executive vice president at nonbank mortgage firm Carrington Holding Co.

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PREDICTION: Small-Bank Attrition

"Community banks will remain viable contributors to their local economies. Many will fail, merge or sell as a necessity set in motion by more regulation, more capital, more expenses and ongoing stress. With no new charters, their numbers will diminish as they continue on a path of extinction." Robert Smith, Commerce National Bank, Newport Beach, Calif.

OUTCOME: The number of banks declined by 2.7%, to 6,891 through Sept. 30. Compliance costs continued to pressure profits and led more banks to sell, though there were fewer failures than in recent years. On the bright side, regulators approved the first new bank in three years - Bank of Bird-in-Hand, serving a rural Amish community in Pennsylvania.

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PREDICTION: Housing Rebound

"The U.S. housing finance recovery will continue. The fate of Fannie and Freddie will be intensely debated but fundamental restructuring will not be achieved (I will try to make myself wrong about the latter point)." Alex J. Pollock, American Enterprise Institute

OUTCOME: Housing prices nationwide rose 7% to an average of $169,000 in November from a year earlier, according to data firm RealtyTrac. Several bills to restructure the government-sponsored enterprises surfaced, including the Corker-Warner proposal in the Senate and a more severe House bill. One of the biggest unresolved issues is how much skin in the game private market participants will be required to maintain in return for government guarantees.

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PREDICTION: GSE Restructuring

"Fannie and Freddie will get a makeover in 2013, ending the conservatorship and sending U.S. mortgage finance into uncharted territory. Private capital will replace the GSEs in halting fashion, leading to major market disruptions absent a very careful transition to the new secondary-market structure." Karen Shaw Petrou, Federal Financial Analytics

OUTCOME: Fannie and Freddie remain in conservatorship, but progress was made on Capitol Hill -- see previous slide.

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PREDICTION: GSE (Stealth) Restructuring

"The government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be fundamentally reformed in 2013, but not by elected officials. As Congress and the Obama administration idle, Ed DeMarco, the unconfirmed head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency will singlehandedly reinvent housing finance in the U.S. By the time lawmakers weigh in, many key decisions will have been made for them." Julia Gordon and John Griffith, Center for American Progress

OUTCOME: Though DeMarco has made a number of key decisions, many are likely to be delayed or not implemented at all by Rep. Mel Watt (pictured), who is scheduled to be sworn in as the FHFA's new director on Jan. 6. Watt has said he will delay a plan to raise fees on borrowers in four states with lengthy foreclosure processes and on the majority of borrowers that do not make 20% down payments.

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PREDICTION: Branches in Flux

"The total number of branches in the U.S. will remain relatively stable, albeit with increased closures of older bricks-and-mortars. Banks will still provide face-to-face interaction to customers who seek it, but will increasingly accomplish it without large and expensive legacy branches. In-stores, on-sites, and considerably smaller brick-and-mortar branches will proliferate. 'Alternative' branches are the new mainstream." Dave Martin, now with Financial Supermarkets Inc.

OUTCOME: The number of branches industrywide fell 1% from 2012, to 96,331, and 1.9% from 2011. Late in the year, PNC announced a plan to overhaul its branch network - not only closing some locations but redesigning the rest, retraining the staff and automating more functions. PNC, Wells and other banks are also shrinking branch sizes as a result of declining foot traffic.

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PREDICTION: Card Deal Collapse

"The settlement agreement of the merchant litigation of bank card interchange fees will falter in 2013 either because the court will force the parties to renegotiate it or because the opt-out process will reject it. The agreement is a one-sided admission of a terrible defeat by the small number of merchants who brought the suit. Their humiliating concessions on interchange pricing and promises never to legally challenge it again would severely harm millions of merchants who were not in the lawsuit but who would be ensnared by if the court approves the settlement on a class basis." Duncan MacDonald, former general counsel of Citigroup's Europe and North America card businesses.

OUTCOME: Enough merchants opted out of the settlement agreement to potentially derail it, but the banks and card brands chose to stay the course and the settlement was approved for a lesser amount. The merchants are appealing.

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PREDICTION: Consumer Protection Crackdown

"The federal government will establish a 36% APR ceiling on small loans, effectively putting an end to payday lending in the U.S. The Department of Housing and Urban Development will promulgate a disparate impact regulation that it has been considering for more than one year." Gregory D. Squires, George Washington University

OUTCOME: No federal cap on APRs, but the payday and short-term lending industry took a beating. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued regulatory guidance that will make it harder for some banks to offer the short-term, high-interest-rate loans known as deposit advances. But the new guidance doesn't apply to all banks, since the Federal Reserve Board declined to join its fellow regulators. Also in 2013, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a report that was critical of payday lending, which may lay the groundwork for future regulation of the industry. HUD did promulgate the disparate impact regulation it had been considering, sparking further fear among bankers about fair-lending suits.

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