Stress tests

Six of the eight regional banks that announced their stress capital buffers on Tuesday said they will need just a 2.5% cushion to weather an economic downturn. All eight said they’ll keep their dividends steady.

In response to the Federal Reserve's stress tests, Wells said it will lower its third-quarter distribution to shareholders. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and five other companies announced stress test capital buffers that exceed the minimum requirement.

Some observers said the central bank should have suspended dividends entirely in response to an unprecedented economic emergency caused by the pandemic. Others said its more cautious moves were appropriate because big banks' capital is strong and the economy could bounce back.

The Fed stopped short of banning payouts entirely following bank stress tests; banks get greater freedom to invest in venture capital funds and reduced collateral on swap trades.

In the most sweeping capital distribution order since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve says it will prohibit big banks from buying back their stock in the third quarter and limit dividend payments to second-quarter levels.

Borrower relief is necessary in a national emergency, but if the exclusion of the deferred loans from troubled-debt restructurings is extended past the end of the year, safety and soundness could be compromised.

The embattled German payments company filed for insolvency, while its former COO is either on the run or looking for the missing $2 billion; the giant asset manager is looking to hire more college graduates rather than poach junior bankers.

The lawmakers argued in a letter to the Federal Reserve that suspending dividend payouts would be the "prudent course of action," allowing banks to build their capital cushions and continue lending during the coronavirus pandemic.

Business continuity plans should be used constantly, not just when the crisis is at its peak, says the New York Fed’s head of financial services.

Big banks will need to show how well they can withstand three different scenarios before they can pay dividends; the German payments company is still looking for $2 billion of missing funds.

The senior official said the Federal Reserve’s gauge of a firm’s performance under economic recovery scenarios will affect decisions about its capital distribution, but individual results of the analysis will not be made public.

Unlike in previous years, the results from two different evaluations will be released simultaneously and will include an assessment of bank capital under coronavirus-related scenarios.

The takeaway from the PPP rollout is that bankers must protect their reputations and limit their risk appetites as they participate in further government-backed rescue programs.

The general structure of this year’s reviews is unchanged despite the pandemic. But a supplemental analysis of banks' response to the downturn could weigh heavily in evaluating 2020 capital distributions and making adjustments to the tests over the long run.

Payouts continue to be relatively generous, but that could change if the Federal Reserve demands banks bolster capital or the economy worsens.

The Federal Reserve also said in a supervisory report released Friday that it would conduct stress tests this quarter as planned, taking into account sudden deterioration in the economy brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

The agency's top supervisory official said the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review will proceed on schedule, and signaled that the Fed will look at how institutions are responding to fallout from the coronavirus.

Q1 profits expected to drop by nearly 25%, while investment banking revenues could tank much more; many banks have tighter standards than the SBA.

OakNorth helps banks analyze credit, identify pandemic-related risks and forecast borrower issues before they turn into defaults.

Requiring banks to test themselves is likely to be a waste of time in the current crisis, says a former Senate Banking counsel.