Tariffs in Banking

Tariffs are influencing the banking sector as bankers navigate today's economic volatility. Tariffs are introducing complexities that impact lending, investment strategies, and overall financial stability across areas of the financial world. As a banker, it is essential that you understand the many ways that tariffs could impact your organization, including escalating trade tensions and shifting regulatory landscapes. Explore our comprehensive coverage, including news, expert analysis, videos, webinars, and market research to stay up-to-date in real-time on the latest tariffs news and insights for financial professionals.

Economy

IMF cuts U.S. growth forecasts, warns of stability risks

The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth projections for 2025, citing policy uncertainty. It also urged central banks to stand ready to use macroprudential tools to facilitate lending in a potential recession.

By Kyle Campbell
Staff writer

April 22
Earnings

Comerica reduces 2025 guidance, may scale back investments

The Dallas-based regional bank doesn't plan to halt in-progress investments, but it may adjust the pace of spending this year, depending on which way the economy goes. It also made downward revisions to its outlook for average loans, net interest income, fee income and expenses.

By Allissa Kline
Reporter

April 21
Earnings

KeyCorp keeps guidance unchanged despite 'macro uncertainty'

Executives at the Cleveland bank are concerned about tariff uncertainty, stubborn inflation and stalled deals — but they haven't changed their guidance for 2025.

By Nathan Place
National Reporter

April 17
Earnings

Fifth Third CEO: Deregulation will up competition for banks

Fifth Third Bancorp revised its guidance, but still expects record net interest income for 2025, even as commercial clients signal that economic volatility will drive up inflation.

By Catherine Leffert
Reporter

April 17
Payments

Amex won't stop product updates despite tariff chaos

CEO Stephen Squeri said current strategy will continue, adding it would look to adjust expenses in areas such as marketing if there's an economic downturn.

By John Adams
Executive Editor, Payments

April 17
Earnings

Truist reduces 2025 revenue guidance amid market volatility

The super-regional bank cited "a material slowdown" in investment banking and trading income as one reason for the lower revenue forecast. Interest rates are also a factor, executives said.

By Allissa Kline
Reporter

April 17
Payments

Klarna, Payoneer buck tariffs to boost global expansion

The Sweden-based payment firm, which recently delayed its IPO due to the trade war, will use Fiserv's Clover point of sale system as it looks to build a market in the U.S. Plus: Payoneer makes a deal in China and other news in this week's global payments roundup.

By John Adams and Joey Pizzolato

April 16

Frequently Asked Questions:

What proactive measures are banks using to mitigate the impact of tariffs?

Trade finance services and corporate client advisory on supply chain adjustments allow banks to lessen the impact of tariffs. For example, Citizens Financial’s trade finance unit helped companies accelerate inventory purchases and use letters of credit to secure transactions ahead of new duties. Many banks are also using hedging strategies and leveraging deregulation windfalls to address higher costs.

How should banks recalibrate interest rate forecasting and monetary policy expectations amid tariff-induced economic disruptions?

Banks can incorporate tariff-driven inflation and growth scenarios into their interest rate models and maintain flexibility in policy outlooks. Institutions are closely tracking Federal Reserve signals in this volatile trade environment, as tariffs can both slow growth and raise prices. This can put the Fed “in a quandary,” requiring banks to update their asset-liability strategies to account for potential rate cuts or even hikes.

What advanced compliance and technology strategies are banks using to optimize cross-border payments and trade finance?

Banks are deploying sophisticated payment analytics and real-time treasury tools to manage cross-border flows amid shifting tariffs. BNY Mellon, for example, notes clients are using predictive cash-flow analytics to navigate uncertainty. Institutions can also improve compliance automation by integrating systems for instant sanctions/tariff list updates. This can ensure cross-border transactions meet changing trade rules.

What are best practices in risk modeling and scenario analysis for banks to navigate tariff-related risks?

Leading banks can look to bolster scenario analysis capabilities to account for tariff shocks. Banks can run stress tests on portfolios with heavy exposure to tariff-impacted sectors such as automotive manufacturing and agriculture as well as model multiple trade war outcomes. Analysts also advise enhancing “playbooks” for varied economic scenarios and properly pricing new loans for added risk. For example, this could mean using forward-looking models to adjust credit loss provisions and capital plans.

How can banks prepare for long-term industry trends driven by tariffs and trade uncertainty?

Banks can prepare through incorporating trade policy shifts into growth investments as well as technology investments. This includes diversifying supply chain financing, investing in local manufacturing projects, and strengthening presence in resilient markets. Industry leaders like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon are watching the “restructuring of trade and tariffs” as an inflationary force shaping future strategy.

Which banking operational units should banks prioritize for tariff exposure assessments?

Commercial lending divisions, including those that finance manufacturers, agriculture, and exporters are a priority. These units will most directly face clients impacted by tariffs. Other units to review exposure risks include specialized trade finance and supply chain finance.

How is artificial intelligence (AI) helping banks address tariff-related challenges?

AI enables banks to respond faster and more efficiently to tariffs. Machine learning models can recalibrate pricing and supply chain finance strategies as trade policies shift. Generative AI tools can shorten the time needed to update payment systems for new tariff rules update payment systems for new tariff rules. AI-enabled platforms can make compliance a proactive function by automating real-time screening of transactions against changing trade restrictions.