The 2016 presidential election is still more than 400 days away, but some credit union professionals have already cast their vote for Donald Trump — at least according to a recent poll on this site (see first graphic at right).
CU Journal asked readers which presidential candidate from either party would be the best for credit unions, and Trump easily claimed the top spot, with 19% of the vote. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Hilary Rodham Clinton were tied for second place with 13% each.
As a follow-up, CU Journal asked why they believed Trump would be the best candidate, despite a summer filled with gaffes, bad behavior and offensive comments (see second graphic). While 39% said they voted for another candidate, 20% cited Trump's experience in business and understanding of banking issues, while others pointed to his outsider status.
But voters won't even head to the voting booth for primaries until January, and analysts told CU Journal that opinions could change quickly.
"A poll is a snapshot in time — nothing more, nothing less," observed John McKechnie, a former NCUA and CUNA staffer who is now a partner at D.C.-based consulting firm Total Spectrum. "It's reflective of the fact that Trump is now riding a high. How sustained that's going to be is anybody's guess, but at least the last month has been Trump's moment in the election so far. He's dominated the Republican field even though the immediate perception after the [August 6 Republican primary] debate was that he didn't do that well. But he doesn't seem to have suffered in his popularity."
More than 40% of poll respondents said they chose Trump because "he's not a typical politician" or because "he's an outside-the-box thinker who will address problems creatively," and McKechnie said that outsider status has been a large part of his appeal thus far. McKechnie referred to him as "the anti-politician" in the same vein as Ross Perot, who ran as a third-party candidate in 1992 and garnered almost 19% of the popular vote.
Dan O'Brien, director of political affairs at NAFCU, pointed out that voters are still in a "getting-to-know-you" phase with candidates.
"Through the primary process, credit unions will have ample opportunity to engage with the candidates … to really see who best supports their interests with credit union issues," he said. "There isn't a frontrunner … that has specifically talked about our issues."
What About Congress?
But many credit union-specific issues aren't handled by the president, but Congress, including protecting the tax exemption, raising the MBL cap and more. So is all the focus on the executive branch misguided? McKechnie and O'Brien insisted that's not the case.
"The make-up of Congress is changing as well, which will also have an effect," said O'Brien. "At the end of the day you're going to need bipartisan support to get something moved, regardless of who's in the executive branch and who's in the legislative branch. It's a polarized electorate. It's really hard to get anything moving without having a majority in Congress to pass something."
McKechnie concurred that the Trump phenomenon is largely a symptom of the public's discontent with government.
"The flavor of the month right now is Donald Trump, the guy who will come in and run Washington like a business and make deals and not be afraid to take on big issues," he said. "The political system has a way of testing candidates. He may end up passing the test; he may be the right guy in 2016, or it may be one of the other candidates."
Both analysts also pointed to the next president's ability to appoint heads of various departments, including appointments to the CFPB and NCUA.
"In theory, the next president could pick three new NCUA board members," said McKechnie. "The next president has a tremendous amount of appointment power with NCUA. They may not do it, but they will have the opportunity to pick a whole new board in their first term."
Time Flies
A lot can change over the course of 500 days—which is about how long it will be until the next presidential inauguration. And NAFCU's O'Brien said that there are plenty of candidates who would represent CUs will in the White House. And while there's plenty of hot air being in the process right now, credit union members "are hearing [candidates] at campaign events across the country, especially in the early primary or caucus states," he said.
But it's still a little early for anyone to start picking out new drapes for the Oval Office.
"Opinions may change over time in terms of who [voters] feel is most suited for either party, and ultimately the presidency."
