Banc One Corp. estimated in a regulatory filing that its profitability would have been 30% lower during this year's first quarter if all its pending acquisitions had been completed.

Analysts said the numbers were not surprising given the recent soft results of many banking companies Banc One has agreed to buy. And they said the estimate was not representative of the returns Columbus, Ohio-based Banc One can expect once the reviving firms are acquired.

Banc One's stock closed unchanged Monday, at $44.50 a share.

Link to Note Offering

As part of a prospectus for an offering of $700 million in subordinated notes, Banc One prepared pro forma financial statements indicating how it would have performed in combination with soon-to-be-acquired companies.

Instead of a reported 1.5% annualized return on assets and an 18.09% return on equity, Banc One would have posted a 1.05% ROA and a 13.8% ROE, it reported. The 1991 ROA would have been 1.09 % instead of a reported 1.56%, Banc One said, and ROE would have been 13.55% instead of 16.58%.

The banking companies primarily responsible for the estimated changes in Banc One's historical earnings are Affiliated Bancshares of Colorado, Denver; Team Bancshares Inc., Dallas, and Valley National Corp., Phoenix. All three are based in the Southwest, and Banc One believes their fortunes will revive along with the region's economy.

That outlook is shared by many analysts.

"Some of the companies Banc One is acquiring have gone through some pretty rough days," said Dennis Shea, a banking analyst at Morgan Stanley & Co. "But what's more important to Banc One are prospective results."

Mr. Shea stopped short of issuing a blanket endorsement of Banc One's Southwest acquisitions, saying he still is somewhat concerned about "the pace and pricing" of the company's deals.

Henry C. Dickson, a bank analyst at Kemper Securities Inc., Chicago, estimated the Affiliated franchise at worst would have a neutral effect on Banc One's profitability in 1993.

Valley would only mildly dilute profitability in 1993, he estimated, and at worst have a neutral effect in 1994.

Banc One's first-quarter estimates, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, exclude a $40.2 million accounting gain booked by Valley National.

Some analysts have questioned whether auditors and regulators will ultimately allow the gain to stand.

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