WASHINGTON - Seven members of the Senate Banking Committee are piling up money for reelection fights next year; now the only thing most of them need are challengers.
Anyone running against them already faces a formidable fund-raising disadvantage.
One example: Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., at midyear had $16.5 million of cash on hand for his 2004 campaign, according to data the Federal Election Commission released late last month. That is more than any other senator up for reelection next year, and the state's senior senator does not yet have an opponent.
Overall fund-raising has surged despite the campaign finance law that took effect this year. Sixty-three Senate candidates for 34 seats raised $75.6 million in the first six months of the year, compared with $43 million raised by 56 candidates for 33 seats during the first half of 2001.
A list of Sen. Schumer's top contributors this election cycle compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics amounts to a not-so-random walk down Wall Street. As of June 30 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has given $266,340, while Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse First Boston LLC, and Bear Stearns Cos. have contributed more than $100,000 each. Twelve of his 20 most generous contributors are banks or brokers.
(Technically, companies do not donate directly. The center's numbers combine contributions from the companies' political action committees with those from individuals associated with the companies and members of their immediate families.)
Sen. Schumer's arsenal seems to be an effective deterrent against opposition. With about 14 months to go until the general election, no Republicans have declared themselves in the running. Rudolph Giuliani probably would represent the biggest threat to his reelection chances, but the former New York mayor, who endeared himself to New Yorkers in the days following the Sept. 11 attacks, has said he is not interested in the job.
During an Aug. 24 interview with the New York television station WNBC, Sen. Schumer said: "I didn't get anywhere by good looks or any kind of real brilliance. I work hard. And so I believe in the Boy Scout motto: Be prepared."
He also estimated that the campaign would ultimately cost about $40 million, a sum that he says Republicans could raise quickly.
Edward Yingling, the executive vice president of the American Bankers Association, said that in Sen. Schumer's case, "there's still the unknown, but he is very strong in the state, works hard, and has raised an awful lot of money" already. "Any Republican would think twice about taking him on."
Senate Banking Chairman Richard Shelby, R-Ala., had $10.6 million of cash as of June 30. He also lacks an opponent and is "well-nigh untouchable politically," according to an Aug. 20 editorial in the Mobile Register. "Sure, he's up for reelection next year, but he has a huge financial war chest and 17 years of able constituent service behind him."
According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Citigroup is his largest contributor at $61,000, while Birmingham-based AmSouth Bancorp. has contributed $34,400. Other contributors include MBNA Corp. ($40,000), Fannie Mae ($39,250), and Colonial Bancgroup Inc., a $16.2 billion-asset company also based in Montgomery ($24,500). Beasley, Allen, Crow, Methvin, Portis, & Miles PC, a Montgomery law firm that specializes in personal injury, product liability, and consumer fraud litigation, contributed $49,700.
So far Sen. Shelby had raised $884,868 from political action committees. About 42% of it has come from PACs related to finance, insurance, and real estate concerns.
Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., with $5.5 million, is in another campaign that is one candidate shy of a race. National City Corp., Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Fannie, and Bank One Corp. are among the largest individual contributors, with each giving between $14,500 and $22,500.
Near the bottom of the incumbent contribution list is Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, with just $556,000, but one observer handicapping the campaign said voters there do not need much convincing to reelect him.
"Sen. Bennett will likely have an opponent but will find little resistance among Utah voters in electing him to another term," said Howard Headlee, the president of the Utah Bankers Association. "Yes, Utah's a Republican state, but Sen. Bennett will do well amongst a lot of Democrats as well. Those aren't just Republicans voting for him."
Sen. Bennett's campaign also listed $1.7 million of debts. A spokeswoman for the senator said that is what remains from a loan of about $3 million that he floated to his election campaign in 1992, when he had a tough primary fight.
Meanwhile, Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, probably has about as many reelection concerns as Sen. Bennett. He won his initial term 1998 by a margin of 70% to 28%, and according to the 2004 edition of the Almanac of American Politics, "there is no reason to think he will have serious competition" next year.
Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., also appears to be untouchable. Not surprisingly for a lawmaker from Connecticut, many of his largest contributors are insurance companies, though Bear Stearns, Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse First Boston, Fannie, and FleetBoston Financial Corp. are also among his largest donors.
One of the few incumbents on the committee who look vulnerable is Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky. He has just over $2 million of cash and may need every bit of it. There are no commercial banks among his top 20 contributors, though the ABA gave $11,500 and the Credit Union National Association donated $5,300.
Sen. Bunning squeaked out a victory in 1998 by fewer than 7,000 votes from an electorate of 1.1 million. But vulnerable is a relative term; Mr. Yingling pointed out that Kentucky has tended to vote for Republicans in the six years since then.
"It's not clear the Democrats have a come up with a great strategy at this point," he said. "At this point, he looks pretty strong."
Al Cross, a political columnist and a reporter for The Courier-Journal in Louisville, said Sen. Bunning's fate could hinge on the November gubernatorial contest between Ben Chandler, the state's Democratic attorney general, and Ernie Fletcher, a Republican congressman.
If Rep. Fletcher wins, it would represent the final victory in a Republican takeover of the historically Democratic state, Mr. Cross said. "If the Democrats win the governor's race, and retain a high degree of proficiency on their part, they ought to be able to put themselves in a position to beat Bunning."
Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster with Garin Hart Yang Research Group in Washington, said the race in Kentucky has attracted his party's attention, because so few Republican incumbents appear beatable this election cycle.
"Kentucky is going to be one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats, because Bunning won so narrowly in '98," he said. "We really have only three seats to go after. Assuming we get a credible candidate, this will be a very in-play seat from a national perspective."
Mr. Yingling said that the election is still 14 months away, "but at this point the Democrats seem to have a few more states where they are vulnerable than the Republicans." Right now "you would think if anything that there would be a couple of pickups for the Republicans, but not enough to change the dynamic of the committee."
(The Senate is made up of 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and one independent. Republicans have an 11-10 edge on the Banking Committee.)
The face of the committee is likely to change for other reasons, such as retirements or defections to other panels. For example, Sen. Zell Miller, D-Ga., is not running for reelection.
