Advancements in artificial intelligence, the continued rise of digital assets and further economic uncertainty are trends that some bankers predict are on the horizon but few are ready for, per new research from American Banker.
American Banker's 2026 Predictions report was fielded online during October and November of 2025 among 174 banking professionals who work across a variety of executive roles at banks, credit unions, neobanks and payments companies.
Below is a breakdown of the top industry changes bankers see coming in the next 12 months.
What's on deck for banking in 2026?
About 20% of respondents indicated that advancements in AI and other technologies was the top likely shift to occur in the banking industry that they didn't feel their peers would expect.
Some respondents are optimistic that the proliferation of agentic AI will help financial institutions provide more tailored products for clients and strengthen marketing efforts. Others worry that fraudsters armed with AI-powered tools will lead to greater monetary losses.
"AI will have a bigger impact [on the banking industry than] expected," one respondent said. "It already has [had a great impact] but it will be exponential" through 2026.
In recent weeks, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST,
Through the formally titled Cybersecurity Framework Profile for Artificial Intelligence, NIST is aiming to provide a framework for companies to build off of when navigating the security risks created by AI.
"It will be essential to keep in mind that defending against AI-enabled attacks and defending AI-enabled systems are two distinct scenarios and should be treated as such," the Cybersecurity Coalition wrote in a March 14 letter to NIST.
Next, 15% of executives that weighed in said the rise of stablecoins and cryptocurrencies was a trend that could take much of the banking industry by surprise.
Some bankers said there could be a "resurgence of bitcoin in real-time payments" or that stablecoins could be "a much stronger presence than the banking industry is anticipating."
"I don't know how hot it is, but if Congress does not fix the loophole for payment of interest on stablecoins, that would be a real game changer for banks, especially community banks," one respondent said. "It has the potential to disintermediate our funding sources."
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has laid the groundwork for a proposed rule to move ahead that would allow FDIC-supervised banks
If passed, the rule would create an additional section to Part 303 of the FDIC's rules governing filing procedures that outlines the eligibility criteria for which institutions could potentially issue stablecoins.
"In the months ahead, we expect to issue a proposed rule to establish the statutorily mandated capital, liquidity and risk management requirements for subsidiaries of FDIC-supervised institutions approved to issue payment stablecoins, along with other GENIUS Act-related work streams," acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill said.
Rounding out the top three changes is economic uncertainty and instability, which 11% of respondents said was their hottest take for 2026.
One particular area of disagreement among respondents is the housing market. Some said changes under the current administration will lead to "the housing [and] mortgage environment[s] finally beginning to improve," while others said first-time home buyers being priced out of ownership will create "another recession and mortgage crisis."
"I do not trust the current administration to execute well on common-sense ideas, even simple things like getting rid of the penny are rolling out with very little federal guidance," one respondent said. "I fear the lack of well-thought-out guidance combined with a recession will bring risk into the industry and lead to bank closures and many more mergers."
Further down the list were major regulatory changes (10%), major financial risks and potential crises (9%), spikes in M&A (9%), rises in fraud and security threats (8%), housing market concerns (5%), negative government influences (5%) and sudden changes by financial institutions to reflect consumer behavior and preferences (3%).
