American Banker's 2026 Predictions Report
American Banker’s 2026 Predictions report was fielded online during October and November of 2025 among 174 banking professionals who work across a variety of executive roles at banks, credit unions, neobanks and payments companies.
Top findings from the report- Stablecoin legislation, enforcement actions and capital requirements are all eyed by bankers for improvement in 2026.
- Recession woes are the top concern for bankers heading into 2026.
- The subprime credit landscape is poised to change for the worse in 2026, and will create a lot of risk for financial institutions.
Results from the report are highlighted below using interactive charts. Mouse over each section for more detail, click on the chart labels to show or hide sections and use the arrows to cycle between chart views.
This item is the first in a series diving into new data from American Banker, so check back for the latest updates.
Key areas of change in the banking industry
Bankers are eyeing a wave of legislative shifts for 2026, for better or worse.
In the report, executives surveyed were asked to weigh in on the likelihood of scenarios involving economic conditions, M&A activity, fraud and others, as well as what kind of impact they would have on the industry at large.
Roughly 66% of respondents surveyed held that changes or clarifications to existing
Sixty-three percent of bankers said it was moderately or very likely that regulators would reduce enforcement actions, followed by 52% who responded the same for easing capital requirements for banks (including rolling back of the Basel Endgame requirements).
Respondents saw reductions in enforcement actions and eased capital requirements as positive changes for the industry in the coming months.
There were also many negative predictions. Twenty-five percent of bankers said the banning of Section 8 housing vouchers is a moderate possibility in 2026, and a separate 35% of respondents predicted that the shift will be detrimental to the industry.
In a
"Without these decisions, institutions cannot make informed strategic investments," Wu said. "Macro policymaking, however, is only the first phase. … What comes next — and what banks must now start preparing for — is the 'micro phase' of crypto regulation."
Key takeaway: Stablecoin legislation, enforcement actions and capital requirements are all eyed by bankers for positive changes in 2026.
Downcast expectations for 2026
Worries about economic turmoil, cybersecurity threats, fraud and other challenges in the financial services industry have bankers pessimistic about the start of 2026.
In recent years, cybersecurity has proven to be an especially prominent problem as data from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network showed that while the number of reported incidents and total dollar value of payments
The issue with the most negative impact on the banking institutions, as identified by 45% of bankers, is a recession or economic downturn, followed by 33% who said cybersecurity threats and 27% who said fraud in traditional payments channels such as ACH and wire transfers.
Other top issues include technology challenges within financial institutions (24%), competition from other banks or credit unions (22%), competition from non-bank players in the payments space (21%) and account takeover fraud or scams (13%).
A smaller set of respondents identified real-time payments fraud (8%) as a negative issue, as well as M&A activity with other financial institutions (7%) and with respondents' institutions (3%). One percent said they don't predict anything to have a negative impact on their institution in 2026.
Key takeaway: Recession woes are the top concern for bankers heading into 2026.
Reading the tea leaves in subprime credit quality
Bankers are looking beyond legislative uncertainty and other worries to keep tabs on another looming threat, subprime credit.
Data from the American Financial Services Association has shown evidence of this trend already appearing, as the outlook for loan performance among subprime consumers
Roughly 77% of respondents say it is somewhat likely that subprime credit portfolios will continue their descent at a faster rate when compared against prime credit portfolios. Sixteen percent say that this won't be the case and 7% are unsure on either possibility.
"There is a cohort that is absolutely struggling," Timothy Gill, AFSA's chief economist and vice president of research, told American Banker. "The subprime performance has certainly deteriorated … especially with respect to auto financing."
Eleven percent of respondents said increases in the proportion of U.S. customers with subprime credit will definitely happen, with a further 61% stating that it will probably happen. Twenty-two percent stated this situation won't come to pass and 5% are unsure all around.
When looking at these two scenarios from a risk perspective, the report found that both pose roughly 49% of some degree of risk to the U.S. banking industry as a whole. Twenty-two percent of respondents said the deterioration of subprime credit portfolios creates a lot of risk and 47% said moderate risk.
Most bankers said that either of these occurrences would have drastically negative impacts on their financial institutions.
Key takeaway: The subprime credit landscape is poised to change for the worse in 2026, and will create a lot of risk for financial institutions.
