The Mortgage Bankers Association backed away from its rosy forecast for industry originations this year, citing rising interest rates, low purchase volume and minimal use of the Obama administration's Home Affordable Refinance Program.
The trade group said Monday that it now expects $2.03 trillion in mortgage origination volume this year, 35% less than the forecast it gave in March.
The MBA now expects $1.3 billion in refinancings and $737 billion in purchase originations this year.
More than $600 billion in lost volume was attributed to lower refinancing under Harp.
Rising rates began to "choke off the refinance wave in May, much earlier than anticipated," Jay Brinkmann, the MBA's chief economist, said in a press release.