How John Waldron could make his mark as Goldman's next CEO

• Key insight: John Waldron, Goldman Sachs' president and chief operating officer, has long been seen as the investment bank's likely next CEO. What's less certain is whether Waldron would revamp Goldman's business mix.
  
• What's at stake: The vast majority of Goldman's revenues come from its powerhouse trading and investment banking business. In search of more durable earnings, Waldron could try to expand asset and wealth management revenues, analysts said.
  
• Forward look: The bank pushed back on the idea that a succession announcement is imminent.

The next CEO of Goldman Sachs stands to inherit a preeminent global investment bank with a massively successful capital-markets business and a bullish attitude about AI's potential to improve the company's efficiency.

What's less obvious is whether longtime heir apparent John Waldron, 57, would seek to further shift Goldman's balance sheet away from its powerhouse trading and investment banking franchise, and whether he will be able to demonstrate favorable results from investments in AI.

That's according to a pair of analysts who follow the $2.1 trillion-asset investment banking giant. Discussion of Waldron's potential imprint on the firm came up this week following news reports that he could succeed David Solomon as chief executive as soon as next year.

The bank pushed back on the notion that a succession announcement is imminent.

In a statement shared with American Banker, Goldman spokesperson Tony Fratto said the bank's board "regularly discusses succession [plans] … but there is no definitive timeline for succession at Goldman Sachs. Any assertions about timing are just speculation."

Overall, there probably won't be huge changes when Waldron takes the helm, according to the two analysts who spoke to American Banker.

"I think David Solomon and John Waldron have been pretty much hip-to-hip for the last several years," said Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities. "Assuming this [leadership transition] takes place, it would be one of the smoothest CEO transitions I've seen."

But there may be tweaks, said Ebrahim Poonawala, an analyst at Bank of America Securities.

The bank has "always wanted to get to a point where earnings are truly durable and perceived as such by the Street … and over the last two or three years, the growth has been strong, but a lot of it has been in capital markets," Poonawala said. Because the capital-markets business tends to be volatile, Waldron may need to address whether there "should be a structural mix shift," so that Goldman generates more revenue from its asset and wealth management business, according to Poonawala.

Asset and wealth management makes up about 25% of the firm's total revenues, with global banking and markets accounting for nearly all of the rest, the bank's latest quarterly disclosures show. The latter unit, which includes trading, produced record net revenues in the second quarter, up 53% year over year.

"The unresolved question for investors is whether Goldman's future lies in further diversifying away from its core trading and investment banking franchises or simply extracting greater value from them," Poonawala wrote in a research note following this week's news reports.

At the same time, Waldron could wind up overseeing the bulk of Goldman's AI build-out.

During the bank's second-quarter earnings call, Solomon called AI "a transformational technology" that will serve to expand employees' capabilities. Depending on the timing of the CEO switch, "the implementation of agentic AI throughout the firm to aid employees and clients and improve efficiency will be more on [Waldron's] shoulders," Mayo said.

"That will be what he needs to accelerate and show concrete evidence of success," Mayo said.

Longtime colleagues, fellow board members

Waldron's eventual assumption of the top seat has been telegraphed for years. Shortly after Solomon became CEO in the fall of 2018, Waldron was named president and chief operating officer. Solomon was 64 as of March.

The two executives have worked together for decades, beginning in the late 1990s when they were both at Bear Stearns. In 2000, soon after Solomon joined Goldman, he recruited Waldron to the firm.

Waldron's roles over the years have included a four-year stint as co-head of the investment banking division, five years as global head of investment banking services and client coverage and a two-year tenure as global co-head of the financial sponsors group, according to the bank's most recent proxy statement.

With Solomon in charge and Waldron serving as No. 2, Goldman's stock price has more than quadrupled over an eight-year period. There was a failed foray into consumer lending, which resulted in the loss of several billion dollars. But the core trading business has outperformed, fueled most recently by the AI boom and pent-up demand to complete mergers and acquisitions.

In recent years, Waldron has had plenty of reasons to stay put. After he was reportedly being scouted by Apollo Asset Management and other investment firms, Goldman announced in early 2025 that Waldron would receive a retention bonus worth $80 million to "maintain continuous employment" with the company for the next five years. Solomon received a similar $80 million retention bonus, with provisions that he too would agree to stick around for another half-decade.

The bonuses drew criticism from shareholders who did not support the off-cycle nature of the awards. The bank's say-on-pay measure in 2025 was ultimately approved by shareholders, but support fell by about 20 percentage points from the prior year.

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A month after Goldman announced the bonuses, Waldron was added to the board of directors as a non-independent director. It was an unusual move, since public bank boards typically do not include members of the C-suite, other than the CEO.

To the surprise of some observers, the Wall Street Journal reported this week that Goldman's board has discussed a plan for Waldron to become CEO as early as next year, with Solomon stepping down from the top job and transitioning to executive chairman for one or two years.

What's known is that Goldman "takes succession extremely seriously, with a long time frame," Mayo said. The talk this week about succession offers a chance to get feedback internally and externally, he said.

"It's clearly [Waldron's] position to lose at this point," Mayo added.