The Recession Watch Index compiled by Comerica Bank, which forecasts the likelihood of a national recession occurring within the succeeding 12 months, registered a 28% probability in August, a 1-point drop from July's reading.

The Comerica index has remained at or near the 28% level since July 1996. "The national economy has not shown this level of stability in decades," said Comerica economist William T. Wilson. "Very simply, our index is predicting continued economic expansion well into 1998."

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