KBW Index Posts Slight Gain with Caution on Earnings Continuing

Bank stocks held steady Friday as the broader markets rose slightly after mixed economic news.

The KBW Bank Index finished at 47, down just 0.19%.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 11.33 points, or 0.11%, to 10618.19, reaching a new 15-month high. For the week it climbed 190.14 points, or 1.82%, marking the first time since 2006 that the Dow rose over the first five sessions of the year.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 17.12, or 0.74%, to 2317.17, a 16-month closing high. It rose 2.12% this week.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 3.29, or 0.29%, to 1,144.98, its highest close since Oct. 1, 2008. It gained 2.68% this week. The measure's industrial sector, which includes UPS, led its Thursday gains.

Friday's stock gains came despite the government's report of more job losses last month than economists had expected, though the report also showed November's figures were revised upward. Meanwhile, U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly surged.

Caution about bank earnings continued.

Citigroup analysts led by Keith Horowitz cut estimates for banking giants Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. on what they predict will be a 15% to 20% drop in fixed-income trading across the industry in 2010 — a bigger slowdown than many other analysts have predicted.

They also said their analysis suggests that the banks will show a "substantial decline" in fiscal fourth-quarter trading revenue for fixed income, commodities and currencies when they report earnings in mid-January.

Many Wall Street analysts have reduced fourth-quarter bank earnings estimates in recent weeks, forecasting lower-than-expected trading revenue.

But only a few have seen negative trends extending into the next year or two.

Among the gainers, SunTrust Banks Inc. shares rose 1.99%, to $23.01; Marshall & Ilsley Corp. rose 1.77%, to $6.89; and KeyCorp rose 1.72%, to $6.50.

Among the losers, Citigroup shares fell 1.64%, to $3.59; BB&T Corp. fell 1.12%, to $27.34; and Bank of America fell 0.89%, to $16.78.

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