Wall Street's recent trading slowdown could prove to be more than seasonal.
Citigroup analysts led by Keith Horowitz cut estimates for banking giants Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. on what they predict will be a 15% to 20% drop in fixed-income trading across the industry in 2010 — a bigger slowdown than many other analysts have predicted.
They also said their analysis suggests that the banks will show a "substantial decline" in fiscal fourth-quarter trading revenue for fixed income, commodities and currencies when they report earnings in mid-January.
Many Wall Street analysts have reduced fourth-quarter bank earnings estimates in recent weeks, forecasting lower-than-expected trading revenue.
But only a few have seen negative trends extending into the next year or two.
The firm cut its B of A full-year 2010 earnings estimate to 50 cents per share, from 95 cents.
It slashed Morgan Stanley's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings-per-share estimate to 36 cents, from 66 cents, and cut its 2010 estimate by 50 cents, to $3.10.
Goldman's fiscal fourth-quarter figure was reduced by 25 cents, to $5.25. The 2010 number was left unchanged at $19.
JPMorgan Chase's figure was reduced to 55 cents, from 70 cents and its 2010 earnings per share to $2.90, from $3.20.