Homeowners in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut face some of the highest projected foreclosure rates over the next five years, while homeowners in Washington State, Maryland and Virginia can expect some of the lowest, according to a Fitch Investor Services mortgage default model.
New Jersey will take the hardest hit, the model said, predicting lenders would foreclose on 170 of every 10,000 mortgages. Connecticut was second with foreclosure rates projected in 144 of every 10,000, or 1.44%. Essex-Bergen-Passaic counties in New Jersey, figured separately from the rest of the state because of different economic factors, rated a close third at 1.43%
New York, which had four regions in the nation's highest projected foreclosure rates including the New York metropolitan area (1.30%), New York State (1.24%), Albany (1.09%), and New York City (0.99%), making it the biggest mortgage risk in the nation.
The lowest mortgage default rates were predicted in Washington State, where the five-year projection was just 0.23%. Delaware and Baltimore were also considered good risks at 0.28%. Chicago was fourth with 0.33%. States in the Midwest, including Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan - figured as part of the same region - rated highly with 0.34%. The national average was 0.74%.
The model, which carved the nation into 43 regions, evaluates credit losses in pools of residential mortgages by projecting foreclosure rates and housing value trends.