The banker's guide to back-to-school 2026

When I was a kid, summers lasted forever. Each one was its own small universe that never seemed to end. Now, as an adult with a kid of my own, summer hardly even seems to occur. Nothing about my life changes, it just gets warmer for a few months. But the end of summer is a distinct moment, whether you notice it or not. Once the kids go back to school, once the summer vacations all end, the serious work starts again.

There are a surprising number of events, developments, and happenings swirling around this fall, all of which will affect the banking industry. We've been covering them all here at American Banker, but I thought it might be nice to gather them all into one list for you, something to bookmark or print out and keep handy. So, here is my list of the biggest developments to keep an eye on the next four months.

The midterms
There is an election coming up in 65 days. On Nov. 3 voters go to the polls to vote on a host of jobs: for the U.S. House of Representatives, for the Senate, but also for governors and other local races. 

In the Senate, Republicans hold a narrow majority and many of the Republicans running for reelection are in states Trump won in 2024. Still, if the upper chamber were to change hands, it would have implications for everything from the economy to crypto. Here is our list of the most important races, involving senators such as Sherrod Brown, Andy Barr and Roy Cooper.

There is more drama in the lower chamber. Republicans have a razor-thin majority and Democrats have a legitimate chance to retake the House of Representatives, which could have implications for crypto, tech oversight and financial regulations. Here is our list of the most competitive races that involve lawmakers who have influence in banking regulations.

State-level elections will matter, too. Several states, New York especially but not only, have an outsized influence on the industry. Here is our list of the most important state races. In New York, both the governor's seat and New York Attorney General are up for a vote, though both races have a clear-cut favorite. California, Arizona, Texas and Colorado also have key races.

Crypto
There was a big push in Congress to get the crypto-structure bill passed before the summer recess, but that failed. The window to pass that bill in the fall is very narrow, given other priorities in Congress (such as, getting reelected). Without Congressional action, regulatory agencies are moving ahead on their own. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has their own plans, and the Securities and Exchange Commission is working on their own rules, too. Meanwhile, there is an entire movement toward tokenized deposits to keep an eye on.

Interest rates
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh promised "a quieter Fed" in his speech last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. That probably sounds good to him but he's trying to change the habits of a market that has spent the last two decades looking to the Fed for guidance. It doesn't help that rates are rising to multi-decade highs and the Treasury Department is enacting hastily concocted attempts to tamp them down. 

Read more:

• Bitcoin's Overton window of opportunity is closing
• Maybe Wells Fargo's unions need a blockchain
• Iran built its own financial system, and has created a cyberfront in the war
• Fed meetings are about to get really awkward

M&A
If you have cash, credit or equity to deploy, now is the time to be looking to buy. The industry has a favorable regulatory regime in Washington, and banks are about as profitable as they've ever been, which means a lot of them are flush and looking for deals. Of course, great profits mean you're going to be paying more, but whatever you can't have everything. The outlook for M&A is so strong that consultancy Bain expects the ranks of the $1 trillion club will nearly double over the next four years. 

Fraud
Maybe it's just me, but it does seem like fraud is becoming an even bigger problem than it's always been. Sure, you have the old-school frauds that will probably never go away. But then you have Chinese hackers breaking into the computer systems of hundreds of organizations in the U.S., including financial institutions. The tools at the disposal of hackers are becoming more and more sophisticated, and some of it is very hard to detect. Whatever you're spending on cybersecurity probably isn't enough.