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Phishing, typically a cyclical crime that dwindles in the winter, has started to buck that trend as the poor economy increases the supply of both perpetrators and victims. With phishing, crooks distribute via e-mail messages links to false Web sites made to appear like legitimate ones to try to steal payment card and other personal information. During a presentation last month, Michael Barrett, chief information security officer of eBay Inc.'s PayPal unit, showed a slide with the usual trend–a large proportion of phish e-mails targeting his company's brand from May to August of last year–but with an unusual trend: a brief spike at the end of the 2008. He was uncertain of the cause but suggested it indicates new blood in the phishing workforce. "There's some evidence that it was a series of newbies who had come in and were trying phishing kits that were old because at that period of time we were seeing more old, poorly engineered phishing e-mails," Barrett said. More up-to-date phishers tend to copy the code and layout of e-mails sent by whatever company they are impersonating, reducing the spelling errors and other telltale signs of forgery more common in the scam's early years, he said. Barrett did not speculate on the reasons behind this possible influx of phishers. "It's actually quite a difficult question to get into, and it comes down to what's the dynamic of what's going on in the black market at any given time, and it gets very involved," he said "It's very difficult to actually prove." Frederick Felman, chief marketing officer for MarkMontior Inc., a San Francisco-based company that offers phishing-protection services, says phishers typically are less active in the winter because "it's just not as profitable for them." Consumers tend to take vacations during the winter months, he says. "People aren't at work as much–that's where people get nailed," Felman says. Victims are snared at work because many have better e-mail access there than at home and because they may have more distractions and are less attentive to warning signs that a particular e-mail may be a scam, he said. But consumers also are vulnerable at home, especially in the wake of layoffs and pay cuts. More individuals are spending time at home either jobless or because they cannot afford vacations, Felman said. This is an ideal situation for cybercrime because it increases the supply of both perpetrators and victims, Felman says. "My expectation is there will be more white collar crime, including phishing, in a down economy," said he says.
