Tariffs in Banking

Tariffs are influencing the banking sector as bankers navigate today's economic volatility. Tariffs are introducing complexities that impact lending, investment strategies, and overall financial stability across areas of the financial world. As a banker, it is essential that you understand the many ways that tariffs could impact your organization, including escalating trade tensions and shifting regulatory landscapes. Explore our comprehensive coverage, including news, expert analysis, videos, webinars, and market research to stay up-to-date in real-time on the latest tariffs news and insights for financial professionals.

Trade agreements

Trump asks JPMorgan's Erdoes to say 'Thank you, Mr. President'

A smiling President Donald Trump thanked some of the biggest U.S. companies for about 10 minutes on Wednesday at the White House, where he was celebrating his trade deal with China. When it came to JPMorgan Chase, he asked for reciprocation.

January 15
Growth strategies

How JPMorgan plans to keep the momentum going

The country's biggest bank is leaning more on fee income to offset rate pressures, expanding in selected U.S. cities and laying the groundwork for operations in China that CEO Jamie Dimon hopes will endure “for 100 years.”

By Jon Prior
Staff Writer

January 14
Trade agreements

Trade pact may give U.S. banks more freedom to operate in China

But some industry watchers are tempering expectations, saying that the language is too vague to know for sure if China is serious about introducing more foreign competition.

By Jon Prior
Staff Writer

December 16
Ag lending

‘Nobody has working capital’: Ag lenders lament trade war’s impact

So far farm loans are holding up well, but bankers gathered at an industry conference this week said they are growing increasingly concerned that credit quality will weaken if the U.S. and China don’t reach a deal soon.

By Jon Prior
Staff Writer

November 12
Commercial lending

‘It’s time to be cautious’: Fifth Third CEO

Amid concern that an economic downturn is approaching, Greg Carmichael said that banks need to focus on credit quality and not worry about expanding their balance sheets.

By Jim Dobbs
Deputy Editor, Community Banks

October 22
Election 2020

GOP senator seeks hearing on Fed independence after Dudley op-ed

Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina called for the panel to hold a hearing on what he termed the danger that the Federal Reserve will meddle in the 2020 presidential election.

August 28
Community banking

Bankers turn curiously optimistic about the economy

Competition for deposits is tight, the outlook for loan demand is uncertain, and regulatory relief is slow-moving. Yet community bankers are feeling better about the economy than they have in two years, a Promontory Interfinancial Network survey found.

By Laura Alix
Staff Writer

August 19

Frequently Asked Questions:

What proactive measures are banks using to mitigate the impact of tariffs?

Trade finance services and corporate client advisory on supply chain adjustments allow banks to lessen the impact of tariffs. For example, Citizens Financial’s trade finance unit helped companies accelerate inventory purchases and use letters of credit to secure transactions ahead of new duties. Many banks are also using hedging strategies and leveraging deregulation windfalls to address higher costs.

How should banks recalibrate interest rate forecasting and monetary policy expectations amid tariff-induced economic disruptions?

Banks can incorporate tariff-driven inflation and growth scenarios into their interest rate models and maintain flexibility in policy outlooks. Institutions are closely tracking Federal Reserve signals in this volatile trade environment, as tariffs can both slow growth and raise prices. This can put the Fed “in a quandary,” requiring banks to update their asset-liability strategies to account for potential rate cuts or even hikes.

What advanced compliance and technology strategies are banks using to optimize cross-border payments and trade finance?

Banks are deploying sophisticated payment analytics and real-time treasury tools to manage cross-border flows amid shifting tariffs. BNY Mellon, for example, notes clients are using predictive cash-flow analytics to navigate uncertainty. Institutions can also improve compliance automation by integrating systems for instant sanctions/tariff list updates. This can ensure cross-border transactions meet changing trade rules.

What are best practices in risk modeling and scenario analysis for banks to navigate tariff-related risks?

Leading banks can look to bolster scenario analysis capabilities to account for tariff shocks. Banks can run stress tests on portfolios with heavy exposure to tariff-impacted sectors such as automotive manufacturing and agriculture as well as model multiple trade war outcomes. Analysts also advise enhancing “playbooks” for varied economic scenarios and properly pricing new loans for added risk. For example, this could mean using forward-looking models to adjust credit loss provisions and capital plans.

How can banks prepare for long-term industry trends driven by tariffs and trade uncertainty?

Banks can prepare through incorporating trade policy shifts into growth investments as well as technology investments. This includes diversifying supply chain financing, investing in local manufacturing projects, and strengthening presence in resilient markets. Industry leaders like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon are watching the “restructuring of trade and tariffs” as an inflationary force shaping future strategy.

Which banking operational units should banks prioritize for tariff exposure assessments?

Commercial lending divisions, including those that finance manufacturers, agriculture, and exporters are a priority. These units will most directly face clients impacted by tariffs. Other units to review exposure risks include specialized trade finance and supply chain finance.

How is artificial intelligence (AI) helping banks address tariff-related challenges?

AI enables banks to respond faster and more efficiently to tariffs. Machine learning models can recalibrate pricing and supply chain finance strategies as trade policies shift. Generative AI tools can shorten the time needed to update payment systems for new tariff rules update payment systems for new tariff rules. AI-enabled platforms can make compliance a proactive function by automating real-time screening of transactions against changing trade restrictions.