Don't expect mobile to evolve differently. Despite the fact that, irrationally, banks have many managers chasing few mobile payments, and few, if any, even thinking about most customers, who pay from their PCs. (Is even the desktop computer obsolete yet? Look around you.)
With a substantial fraction of customers already having access to remote deposit capture (through which only very small numbers of checks are being deposited), you can easily find a substantial, proven vendor whose service and costs are no worse than those your largest competitors incur. Details won't matter.
Compressing consumer PC payment services and wallets onto a small screen likewise will come down to routine, standard, bank-neutral vendor options, without proprietary advantage. Customization and exclusivity are transient mirages not worth chasing.
Andrew Kahr is a principal in Credit Builders LLC, a financial product development company, and was the founding chief executive of First Deposit, later known as Providian.
Mr. Kahr uses the rearview mirror approach to make his points, and that is okay. It may be true that ATM's did not cut costs and improve bank profits and that NFC cannot get people around the checkout line; that "consumer transaction volume growth through new payment mechanisms is glacially slow;" and, that wallet products for PCs burned through a lot of venture capital with no success. The problem with viewing things through a rearview mirror, however, is that the view is so limited.
Another way of looking at these things is to start with what folks were attempting to do and asking what was driving them at the time. Has NFC is been touted as a cost saver or a convenience? As a cost saver, it begs the question, how can it do that in a "not-present" environment, such as cyberspace? NFC is a good application for tracking inventory, but it was not designed to authenticate or to secure transactions in cyberspace. Similar conclusions can be drawn for tokenization, biometrics and passwords.
A proper question is, did these products do what they were originally designed to do?
After stating his series of conclusions, Mr. Kahr asks, "Why should this time be different?" ...why is the glass half empty?
Innovation and the ability to adapt solutions to problems are part of what made this country great. Rearview mirrors also reveal the works of Edison, Ford, Firestone and Jobs. Which is to say that there is more to hindsight than just failures.
Mobile should be a priority for banks. Why? Because it is something their customers want.
Can authentications in cyberspace be both convenient and secure, while lowering costs and improving bank profits? Don't bet against it... In fact, some solutions may already be out there.