- Key insight: Now that there's more certainty around the Iran war, larger bank M&A could pick up, since banks want to make deals under the current Trump administration, experts say.
- What's at stake: More regional banks may pursue merger opportunities in order to address scale and technology challenges.
- Expert quote: "I do think the next [presidential] election matters immensely." — Bill Burgess, co-head of financial services investment banking at Piper Sandler
In the world of bank mergers and acquisitions, the deregulatory stance of the second Trump administration was expected to usher in a wave of consolidation, regardless of the lenders' size.
But following an uptick in deal announcements during the second half of 2025, during which time several regional banks inked and completed mergers at a relatively fast clip,
Now, as the U.S. and Iran negotiate a peace agreement, and as the clock keeps ticking on the M&A-friendly Trump administration, some industry experts are predicting that larger bank M&A will resume. The question is, will activity start picking up soon or closer to the 2028 presidential election?
A year-and-a-half into Trump's four-year term, some bank CEOs may feel increasing pressure to find a merger partner in the coming months, according to Meg Tahyar, a partner and co-head of the financial institutions group at the law firm Davis Polk. The pressure is driven by the need for scale and technology, as well as a desire to take advantage of favorable regulatory winds.
Under the current Trump regime,
In a sharp reversal from past years, the
"The limited window of opportunity is the risk that we get another kind of administration in 2029, and they go back to the kind of behavior we were seeing during the early Biden era," Tahyar told American Banker. At that time, large bank M&A deals were more closely scrutinized and took longer to be approved.
The window won't "automatically slam shut, but it might get narrower" in 2029, Tahyar added.
Bank dealmaking, which lagged during much of the Biden administration, rebounded for about six months last year with
Pinnacle Financial Partners and Synovus Financial
All six deals closed in a matter of months from the time they were announced.
Through the first half of 2026, a total of 83 bank M&A deals were announced, according to Laurie Havener Hunsicker, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners who tracks weekly bank consolidation trends. The list includes the
In a research note Monday, Hunsicker predicted that M&A activity is on the brink of rising again.
"We now believe that bank M&A in [the second half of 2026] and [in 2027] is poised to substantially accelerate on easing geopolitical tensions and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," she wrote. "Further, the strength in stock prices, the pent-up demand to do deals and the substantially faster regulatory approval process will continue to accelerate M&A."
There were 188 bank M&A deals announced in 2025, according to Hunsicker's research. That compares with 129 in 2024 and 102 in 2023.
The chances of regionals and super-regionals getting M&A deals across the finish line is higher now, given the way the Trump administration has "loosened the reins very, very substantially on the antitrust side," according to Todd Baker, senior fellow at the Richman Center for Business, Law & Public Policy at Columbia University and managing principal of Broadmoor Consulting.
Deals between larger regionals that would have faced steep challenges during the prior administration have a high chance of getting the green light in the current environment. That could lead to larger regionals looking to pair up with other big regionals, Baker said.
"If you're [a larger bank] thinking about doing a deal, and you can get the Trump administration on your side, you might be able to get a deal done," Baker told American Banker.
Baker predicted that Truist Financial, one of the largest U.S. regionals, is likely to at least investigate a potential sale in the coming year. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank
Truist declined to comment on whether it will explore a sale.
Citi, one of the four largest U.S. banks, was reportedly exploring opportunities to buy a regional bank, according to
Citi CEO
Banks with more than $100 billion of assets that are interested in potential M&A deals may not need to act right now if they're thinking about buying or selling, according to Bill Burgess, managing director and co-head of financial services investment banking at Piper Sandler.
That's because the outcome of the midterm elections won't lead to personnel changes at bank regulatory agencies, he explained.
But it's a different story with a new president, especially if that person is a Democrat. If banks are interested in M&A, but unable to act before Trump leaves office, they may have to wait another four to eight years before the opportunity arises again with a different administration, he said.
"Not everyone agrees with me, but I don't think the midterms matter," Burgess said. "I do think the next [presidential] election matters immensely."
