American Banker's 2026 Predictions Report
American Banker’s 2026 Predictions report was fielded online during October and November of 2025 among 174 banking professionals who work across a variety of executive roles at banks, credit unions, neobanks and payments companies.
A closer look at credit union leaders’ responses reveals what they care about most. Top findings from the report- Generative AI is predicted to be a major force of change for the industry in 2026.
- More than half (52%) of credit unions see identity theft as a major threat to their business.
- Nonbank entities are gaining traction in the financial services space, taking market share away from banks and credit unions.
- A sizable share of credit unions grew distrustful that the Federal Reserve Board can act without partisanship.
Results from the report are highlighted below using interactive charts. Mouse over each section for more detail, click on the chart labels to show or hide sections and use the arrows to cycle between chart views.
This item focuses on results from credit union executives. To view findings broken down by respondent category, click the links below.
- Community banks:
Community bankers distrust the Fed, fear nonbank competitors - Midsize/regional banks:
Regional bank execs love mobile apps, fear wire transfer fraud - National banks:
Big-bank execs are embracing the Federal Reserve and AI
To view the overall research, click the links below.
- Part one:
Bankers forecast 2026 upheaval in cybersecurity, regulation - Part two:
Bankers fear economic struggle in 2026 - Part three:
Fraud will remain a top problem for banks in 2026, but AI could help - Part four:
Cybersecurity, fraud attacks may cause systemic risk in 2026 - Part five:
Bankers wary of nonbank payment rivals in 2026
The generative AI wave sweeping across the credit union industry
Artificial intelligence has boomed in popularity across financial services over the last few years, and the introduction of generative AI models has only furthered that growth. Credit unions are among the most eager to integrate the technology.
The largest share of credit unions (43%) predicted that generative AI models would be the top technology changing how financial institutions operated in 2026. By contrast, a majority of community banks (44%) said stablecoins are the most disruptive technology, while regional banks (42%) and large banks (36%) identified agentic AI as the most significant changemaker for the coming months.
Generative AI-powered products promise to reduce the burden of heavy workloads on employees that use them, with institutions such as
North Island Credit Union, based in San Diego and a division of California Credit Union, launched its virtual chatbot named "Georgia" for members to use through its website and mobile app. The bot employs generative AI to answer queries ranging from resetting passwords to locating the nearest credit union branch.
"By investing in advanced AI technologies, we're giving members greater convenience, faster answers and more control without compromising the trusted relationships we've built over decades," North Island Credit Union President Steve O'Connell said in a statement. "While Georgia enhances digital convenience, we remain equally committed to providing in-person and phone service for members who prefer a more traditional experience — ensuring that every member can interact with the credit union in the way that works best for them."
Key takeaway: Generative AI is predicted to be a major force of change for the industry in 2026.
Identity theft tops fraud worries for credit unions
When it comes to the multi-faceted world of fraud, identity theft is the biggest worry for credit union leaders.
More than half (52%) of credit unions are most worried about new accounts created using stolen identity information. Large banks (34%), regional banks (31%) and community banks (20%) were in agreement that identity theft poses a significant negative impact on their institutions in 2026.
One such example of a successful instance of fraud is Mary Carole McDonnell, a Hollywood production executive whose company produced true crime shows. McDonnell is
Identity theft can be hard to combat, as scammers armed with legitimate credentials can weave through defenses designed to detect less sophisticated and more obvious attacks. But financial institutions still need to ensure that there are programs in place to protect consumers.
In 2022, U.S. brokerage units of JPMorganChase and UBS Group were
In speaking to American Banker about check fraud, a form of identity theft, David Maimon, head of fraud insights for SentiLink, said that even something as seemingly simple as a stolen check can be the basis of an entire identity theft profile.
"Financial institutions — and especially their fraud and compliance teams — cannot afford to treat this as merely a check fraud problem," Maimon said. "It is an upstream identity compromise with downstream impact across every product line: personal checking, SMB accounts, digital lending [and] even tax prep partnerships."
Key takeaway: More than half (52%) of credit unions see identity theft as a major threat to their business.
Credit union executives see nonbank companies as a threat
The regulatory path for nonbank firms to achieve a banking charter has become less troublesome for companies in the last few years, creating a greater challenge for banks and credit unions alike.
For credit unions (67%), community banks (62%), regional banks (46%) and large banks (58%), nonbank payments firms are the biggest threat to business operations in the coming year. An equal share of regional bankers (46%) also highlighted nonbank mortgage firms as a significant threat.
Institutions are no longer competing solely against one another for market share, as international fintechs increasingly seek to establish footholds in the U.S. Payments firms like the Japanese fintech
Earlier this year, Dutch neobank Bunq
If approved, the challenger bank plans to launch a product allowing consumers with a financial history in foreign countries to use those records for building a credit score in the U.S.
"We're really excited about this service," Joe Wilson, chief evangelist for Bunq, told American Banker. "It's a pain point we have heard over and over again from our users traveling, working or living in the U.S. Once operational in the U.S., Bunq will be able to offer credit cards to eligible E.U. citizens, who often do not have a U.S. credit score, by leveraging their European credit history."
Key takeaway: Nonbank entities are gaining traction in the financial services space, taking market share away from banks and credit unions.
What do credit unions think about the independence of the Federal Reserve?
There have been numerous efforts by President Trump to bring the Federal Reserve closer to his control, and credit union leaders have taken notice.
More than half of credit union respondents (61%) have lost faith in the ability of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors to operate independently of any political affiliations. A decent portion of those at the helm of community banks (54%), regional banks (46%) and large banks (31%) felt the same.
Only 15% of credit unions became more trusting of the Fed board, while 5% of community banks, 31% of regional banks and 22% of national banks also said they gained trust in the board's independence.
The latest change to public perception of the Fed is the
Eugene Ludwig, chief executive of Ludwig Advisors, told American Banker that he sees Warsh's nomination as a sign that the economy is "entering a period of business- and growth-oriented financial services leadership."
"Chairman-to-be Warsh's experienced views largely align with those of the three business-oriented bank regulators: Jonathan Gould, Michelle Bowman and Travis Hill," Ludwig said. "This is not to say that Chairman Powell was not also business-oriented. However, the current economic conditions, along with this administration's financial leadership team, are focused on pushing economic growth as a primary priority and will work collegially, at least initially, to achieve that goal."
Key takeaway: A sizable share of credit unions grew distrustful that the Federal Reserve Board can act without partisanship.
