Economic indicators

An alternative metric might have led the Federal Reserve to take earlier action against rising prices.

The three-month London interbank offered rate for dollars climbed to a nearly 14-year high as traders brace for steady interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, backing away from speculation the central bank will ease up as the economy shows signs of cooling. 

The American Bankers Association’s credit conditions index fell sharply, as economists foresaw dampening loan demand. The weaker outlook lines up with major bank CEOs’ increased worries over a possible recession.

An American Bankers Association panel of experts predicted much slower economic growth, but agreed that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession over the next couple of years.

After lying low for a couple of years, wealthy consumers are poised to unleash nearly a quarter-trillion dollars in a card-spending binge that only a COVID-19 resurgence could derail, according to Visa's chief economist, Wayne Best.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects farm profits to drop by 8% this year due to multiple factors, creating credit quality questions for ag banks.

Banks report solid commercial and industrial loan demand, but are increasingly concerned about how soaring inflation and the specter of recession will affect their clients.

In “The Journey of Humanity,” the economics professor Oded Galor explores the complex question of why some countries have flourished while others continue to struggle.

In a recent survey, just over half of community bankers expressed concern that the central bank will harm the U.S. economy by raising rates too fast in its quest to contain inflation.

Although small banks and credit unions are enjoying healthier loan portfolios, they are also bracing for potential setbacks due to higher interest rates and inflation.

Business inventories, a key indicator of potential loan demand, are expected to swing upward this year as supply chain bottlenecks finally crack open, according to a panel of economists.

With prices increasing faster than they have since the 1990s, the Federal Reserve appears poised to tighten monetary policy. Top industry executives are worried about the chances of either a recession or runaway inflation, depending on whether the central bank moves too quickly or too slowly.

“The deceleration in economic activity was largely attributable to a pullback in dining out, travel, and tourism in most Districts, reflecting safety concerns due to the rise of the Delta variant,” the central bank said in its Beige Book survey.

Earlier this summer, bankers sounded upbeat about Americans’ purchasing patterns, particularly in connection with loan growth in the credit card business. But more recent data suggests that the delta variant is taking a toll on consumer confidence.

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low to reduce unemployment and to keep prices stable. But in “Engine of Inequality," Karen Petrou argues that its accommodative stance is actually making the wealth gap wider.

A survey commissioned by Bank of America found that Black entrepreneurs are more hopeful about revenue opportunities than other small-business owners, though many are still struggling to bring in the capital needed to expand.

The latest monthly Trends Report from CUNA Mutual Group showed October's year-over-year membership growth rate was the slowest since the fall of 2014.

Though there is some optimism about an economic recovery, two-thirds of respondents said they expect revenue to be flat of down next year and just 13% plan to be in hiring mode.

It remains unclear how Mark McWatters's departure will impact the credit union regulator, and there is growing evidence that the country could face a "double-dip recession."

A public-private partnership that has fewer rules and restrictions than the Paycheck Protection Program would save more small businesses.