Inflation

Bank of America and Oracle are among those tweaking their treasury management and supply chain technology, partly to address clients that face cash management challenges from geopolitical risk.

A 21.2% spike in the price of gasoline was the biggest contributor to a 0.9% increase in the Consumer Price Index in March, according to a Friday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency said other price increases were largely contained.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in a speech Tuesday that despite positive employment readings in recent months, he remains concerned that an economic shock could still threaten the labor market.

Two former members of the Federal Open Market Committee said in interviews that they expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady amid uncertainty over the ongoing war with Iran and the resulting upward pressure on inflation.

In three separate appearances Thursday, Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, Gov. Michael Barr and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said they are worried that U.S. involvement in the war with Iran could drive up inflation, leading them to conclude that interest rates should remain steady in the near term.

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's commentary about the economic impacts of the Iran war and its longer-term impact on inflation.

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Chief economists at large and regional banks predicted ongoing inflation, in part because of the anticipated surge in oil prices as a result of the Iran war. The forecast from the American Bankers Association's Economic Advisory Committee did not account for the disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a public appearance in Dallas Friday that the administration will seek alternative means of enacting the White House's tariff agenda after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs as outside the bounds of the law.

The path of US interest rates remains in focus following the slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January Consumer Price Index Friday, showing that inflation rose 0.2%, while the annual rate eased to 2.4% after holding at 2.7% for several months. The data reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near future. 

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in a speech Friday that long-term productivity gains brought on by artificial intelligence could compel the central bank to maintain higher rates to keep prices stable.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said in a speech Wednesday night that the central bank's credibility depends on its ability to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Thursday indicated that the Core Consumer Price Index indicated that inflation rose by only 2.7% in November versus a year ago, a pace that is the slowest rate of price increases since 2021.

A survey compiled by the American Financial Services Association showed deteriorating business conditions during the third quarter of this year. The outlook for subprime borrowers was particularly grim.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve Board should reject the renomination of any regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents who have not lived in their districts for three years, signaling a potential confrontation when reappointments come before the board in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Consumer Price Index reading Friday morning, showing inflation rose by 0.3% in September, slightly below August's pace. The report also found core inflation steady at 3.0%, even as shelter costs eased and gasoline prices spiked.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Friday that the economic outlook is uncertain and that he was adopting a cautious approach to gauging whether slowing growth and a softening labor market outweigh inflation pressures from tariffs.

Personal income, which rose $95.7B in August, was overtaken by consumer spending, which jumped $129.2B, pushing the saving rate to 4.6% amid steady inflation and higher wages.

The American Bankers Association's Economic Advisory Committee expects the economy to grow, albeit at a slower pace than it previously anticipated. The group pointed to stubbornly high inflation and a weakening job market.