Earnings

Bank of America expects 3% GDP growth this year and a 2% improvement next year, even in the face of rising rates. Consumers’ continued willingness to spend and borrow, which was evident in the bank’s first-quarter results, is a key reason for that outlook.

One year after CEO Jane Fraser launched a business revamp, Citigroup reported lower revenue, higher expenses and a big reserve for loan losses in Russia. Yet the company’s long-term plan to streamline operations and invest in high-performing businesses — all with an aim to strengthen shareholder returns — still appears on track.

The Pittsburgh bank had warned that business activity in its capital markets unit was slowing because of economic uncertainty stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But its fee income declined by more than the company anticipated in the first quarter, and looming rate hikes from the Fed will no doubt cut into mortgage income further.

U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo both reported robust business loan volumes during the first quarter, while other large lenders reported smaller gains. Inflation is fueling more spending on technology, and companies are catching up on capital expenditures that they deferred earlier in the pandemic, according to bank executives.

CEO Jamie Dimon cited elevated risks related to inflation and the war in Ukraine as the nation’s largest bank added $902 million in loan-loss reserves. “Does this represent conservatism in an uncertain macro environment or something more onerous?” one analyst asked.

Higher interest rates are generally helpful to the industry, but they are also leading to unrealized losses in banks’ bond portfolios. Trust banks such as Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust may take relatively large hits when they announce their first-quarter results.

In response to the war in Ukraine, the custody bank is no longer pursuing new business in Russia. Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have all announced similar moves.