Executive summary

Nonbank payment firms are stronger rivals for banks in 2026

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Mergers and acquisitions, nonbank competition and digital assets are all factors shaping how banks will perform in the coming months.

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Top questions answered in the research

  • How likely is it that nonbank companies will grow market share in the payments industry?
  • What kind of a threat are nonbank companies to banks?
  • Which segment of the banking industry is prime for M&A deals?

Key takeaways

  • Nonbank firms growing their market share in the payments space is a likely possibility, according to bankers.
  • The medium to small banks are the institutions best situated for M&A.

This five-part series dives into the data using interactive charts broken out into these main themes: forecasting economic changes in the coming year, policy predictions and concerns, emerging technology trends, M&A competition within the financial services space, and fraud and cybersecurity.

Featured charts

Nonbanks are vying for market share

What are the biggest threats to banks in 2026?


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